* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DON AL052017 07/18/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 43 46 50 51 54 57 60 64 67 69 V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 43 46 50 51 54 57 60 64 67 69 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 42 43 45 47 47 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 8 14 16 16 11 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -4 -3 -2 3 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 292 273 248 256 271 270 283 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.0 27.5 27.5 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 147 140 134 134 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 159 161 158 150 141 141 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.7 -53.3 -53.7 -54.0 -53.5 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 11 10 9 11 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 56 60 60 61 61 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 32 31 30 39 46 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -6 1 28 57 45 38 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -4 -6 -11 -6 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 441 238 100 127 187 79 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.5 11.7 11.9 12.0 12.3 12.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 57.0 59.0 60.9 63.0 65.1 69.3 73.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 19 20 21 21 21 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 53 57 35 21 17 17 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 11. 15. 18. 21. 23. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 11. 14. 17. 20. 24. 27. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 11.4 57.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052017 DON 07/18/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.65 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 36.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.23 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.4 to -3.0 0.28 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.77 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.26 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 215.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.72 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 15.6% 11.6% 7.7% 6.1% 12.0% 11.9% 13.7% Logistic: 4.3% 21.8% 11.3% 6.2% 3.2% 5.2% 4.8% 18.4% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 1.2% Consensus: 3.3% 12.9% 7.7% 4.6% 3.1% 5.9% 5.7% 11.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052017 DON 07/18/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052017 DON 07/18/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 42 43 46 50 51 54 57 60 64 67 69 18HR AGO 40 39 40 41 44 48 49 52 55 58 62 65 67 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 40 44 45 48 51 54 58 61 63 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 33 37 38 41 44 47 51 54 56 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT