* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DON AL052017 07/18/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 51 54 56 58 58 60 62 63 65 67 69 V (KT) LAND 45 48 51 54 56 58 58 60 62 63 65 67 69 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 53 56 58 60 59 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 8 9 16 19 16 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 -4 -2 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 264 286 264 251 262 283 276 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.4 27.9 27.6 27.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 150 146 139 135 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 158 160 162 158 148 142 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -53.4 -53.9 -53.6 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 11 11 10 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 56 57 59 59 60 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 14 29 30 30 33 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -5 0 9 38 61 62 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -1 -4 -8 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 548 412 225 138 166 158 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.6 11.8 12.0 12.2 12.4 12.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 55.4 57.3 59.2 61.4 63.6 67.6 72.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 19 20 22 21 21 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 47 54 54 18 22 20 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 10.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 19. 20. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -14. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 13. 15. 17. 18. 20. 22. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 11.4 55.4 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052017 DON 07/18/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 7.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.71 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 39.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.25 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.39 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.63 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.2 28.4 to 139.6 0.75 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.24 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 245.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.70 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 3.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.4% 34.7% 20.1% 10.7% 8.9% 14.9% 16.9% 16.4% Logistic: 10.6% 44.9% 30.8% 22.1% 11.7% 10.1% 9.8% 30.9% Bayesian: 1.2% 2.5% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 2.1% 1.3% 3.9% Consensus: 7.7% 27.4% 17.4% 11.0% 6.9% 9.0% 9.3% 17.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052017 DON 07/18/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052017 DON 07/18/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 48 51 54 56 58 58 60 62 63 65 67 69 18HR AGO 45 44 47 50 52 54 54 56 58 59 61 63 65 12HR AGO 45 42 41 44 46 48 48 50 52 53 55 57 59 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 39 39 41 43 44 46 48 50 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT