* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DON AL052017 07/18/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 49 54 57 62 65 69 72 74 76 77 78 V (KT) LAND 40 45 49 54 57 62 65 69 72 74 76 77 78 V (KT) LGEM 40 46 52 57 61 67 69 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 4 7 6 11 17 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -1 0 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 138 282 295 271 250 281 272 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.5 27.5 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 148 150 147 134 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 156 156 155 159 157 141 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -53.6 -53.4 -54.0 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 59 57 57 60 60 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 5 4 5 5 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 30 16 31 30 29 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 0 7 12 33 50 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 0 -7 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 609 548 444 254 115 168 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.4 11.6 11.7 11.8 12.0 12.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 53.8 55.4 57.0 58.8 60.7 64.8 69.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 17 18 19 21 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 41 47 52 56 38 17 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 16.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 24. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 14. 17. 22. 25. 29. 32. 34. 36. 37. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 11.2 53.8 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052017 DON 07/18/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 10.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.88 4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 46.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.30 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.38 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.79 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 205.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.73 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 3.7 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.7 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.2 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.8% 42.1% 26.6% 15.6% 9.4% 15.6% 19.6% 25.3% Logistic: 11.6% 58.1% 42.2% 30.2% 13.6% 20.5% 23.7% 54.7% Bayesian: 2.7% 5.2% 2.5% 0.3% 0.0% 3.0% 4.3% 14.2% Consensus: 8.7% 35.1% 23.8% 15.3% 7.7% 13.0% 15.8% 31.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052017 DON 07/18/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052017 DON 07/18/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 45 49 54 57 62 65 69 72 74 76 77 78 18HR AGO 40 39 43 48 51 56 59 63 66 68 70 71 72 12HR AGO 40 37 36 41 44 49 52 56 59 61 63 64 65 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 33 38 41 45 48 50 52 53 54 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT