* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DON AL052017 07/17/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 47 51 58 64 69 67 69 65 66 66 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 47 51 58 64 69 67 69 65 66 45 V (KT) LGEM 35 40 44 49 53 61 65 66 64 61 55 50 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 3 6 10 10 14 12 15 23 34 32 28 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 0 0 -1 -3 0 1 -1 -4 -4 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 63 36 323 306 294 265 268 231 278 283 284 269 264 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.4 27.9 27.8 27.8 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 149 147 149 145 138 137 137 141 143 144 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 154 154 152 154 150 141 140 140 145 146 145 148 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 10 9 11 10 11 11 12 11 10 700-500 MB RH 64 62 60 57 59 62 57 55 55 56 57 62 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 10 8 9 7 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 56 46 29 13 28 23 23 32 45 59 25 4 1 200 MB DIV 17 17 13 13 20 65 44 42 41 35 35 47 35 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -4 -7 -9 3 1 -6 -1 0 5 LAND (KM) 617 609 555 466 314 149 234 213 178 375 381 107 -121 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.6 11.8 12.1 12.7 13.3 14.1 14.4 14.6 14.7 14.8 LONG(DEG W) 52.3 53.8 55.3 56.8 58.3 61.4 64.7 68.1 71.6 75.3 79.0 82.2 85.0 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 15 16 16 17 18 18 16 15 13 HEAT CONTENT 26 41 47 50 57 22 26 30 26 58 40 23 57 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 13.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 20. 23. 26. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 3. -0. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. -1. -0. -4. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 23. 29. 34. 32. 34. 30. 31. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.0 52.3 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052017 DON 07/17/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 5.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.86 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 44.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.28 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.4 to -3.0 0.33 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.81 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.22 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 156.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.78 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 22.6% 15.1% 9.6% 7.9% 14.1% 17.9% 20.6% Logistic: 8.2% 35.5% 21.4% 11.4% 5.9% 16.3% 32.0% 46.5% Bayesian: 2.4% 6.0% 1.9% 0.3% 0.0% 2.8% 15.1% 9.2% Consensus: 6.0% 21.4% 12.8% 7.1% 4.6% 11.1% 21.7% 25.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052017 DON 07/17/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052017 DON 07/17/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 39 43 47 51 58 64 69 67 69 65 66 45 18HR AGO 35 34 38 42 46 53 59 64 62 64 60 61 40 12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 39 46 52 57 55 57 53 54 33 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 29 36 42 47 45 47 43 44 23 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT