* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR AL042017 07/08/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 29 32 34 35 36 37 38 41 42 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 29 32 34 35 36 37 38 41 42 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 24 23 23 23 23 24 25 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 19 19 20 25 23 26 24 24 23 23 22 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 0 -2 -5 1 -3 -3 -4 -5 -5 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 240 258 271 273 280 309 296 307 295 299 289 293 302 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 132 133 135 135 134 135 137 138 137 137 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 130 128 128 129 125 121 119 122 123 122 121 122 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.5 -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 -54.5 -54.4 -54.4 -54.7 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 10 11 10 11 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 43 42 43 45 46 52 57 60 59 60 59 58 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -23 -31 -35 -37 -40 -42 -29 -28 -13 -5 -6 -16 200 MB DIV 12 9 -5 -10 2 6 -7 -2 -2 12 -18 10 -2 700-850 TADV 21 24 19 12 12 10 1 -2 -7 -6 -4 -4 -2 LAND (KM) 1038 966 938 807 687 557 519 502 433 362 253 217 226 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.6 18.5 19.3 20.0 21.4 22.3 22.8 22.4 21.9 21.5 21.6 21.8 LONG(DEG W) 53.8 55.4 56.8 58.1 59.4 61.5 63.1 64.5 65.8 67.1 68.4 69.4 70.5 STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 15 14 14 10 8 6 7 6 5 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 39 34 18 24 25 17 15 18 36 46 23 22 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 26. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -0. -4. -7. -10. -14. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 16. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.0 53.8 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042017 FOUR 07/08/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.38 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 28.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.18 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.49 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.68 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.15 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 219.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.72 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 20.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.79 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 11.9% 9.4% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 2.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.8% 1.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 4.7% 3.5% 2.1% 0.1% 0.1% 2.6% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042017 FOUR 07/08/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042017 FOUR 07/08/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 27 29 32 34 35 36 37 38 41 42 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 28 31 33 34 35 36 37 40 41 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 27 29 30 31 32 33 36 37 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 20 22 23 24 25 26 29 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT