* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHRIS AL032018 07/12/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 53 47 42 36 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 53 47 42 36 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 60 53 48 43 39 32 30 30 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 34 33 35 34 35 34 28 22 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 4 5 6 7 5 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 203 202 207 211 217 229 195 163 198 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 16.6 10.7 7.2 7.2 10.3 8.8 11.4 11.0 10.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 77 71 70 69 71 70 70 67 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 74 70 69 68 69 69 68 65 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.1 -53.8 -53.5 -52.8 -50.0 -48.2 -46.7 -46.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.7 -0.3 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.9 3.8 4.4 4.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 46 46 43 38 37 54 60 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 28 27 27 24 20 21 24 21 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 44 14 17 16 104 160 166 178 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 -10 0 0 -22 -47 18 25 -44 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -11 -26 -33 -57 -76 -59 -51 -18 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 256 158 59 344 648 1317 1020 841 888 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 43.4 45.4 47.4 49.1 50.7 53.4 55.8 58.5 61.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 59.2 55.7 52.1 48.4 44.6 35.7 25.6 20.8 19.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 31 32 31 30 30 31 24 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 30 CX,CY: 19/ 23 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 469 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -6. -9. -12. -16. -19. -23. -28. -32. -34. -37. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -10. -12. -17. -21. -26. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -10. -8. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -13. -18. -24. -33. -41. -48. -54. -59. -62. -65. -69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 43.4 59.2 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032018 CHRIS 07/12/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.39 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.74 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 330.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.59 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 9.6 28.4 to 141.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.12 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 86.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.13 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032018 CHRIS 07/12/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032018 CHRIS 07/12/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 53 47 42 36 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 53 48 42 33 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 51 45 36 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 44 35 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT