* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022018 07/12/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 34 41 48 50 51 53 54 49 43 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 34 41 48 50 51 53 54 43 41 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 27 29 31 32 33 35 39 35 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 21 14 19 28 19 18 26 14 10 3 14 21 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 0 0 3 -4 -5 -9 -2 -1 -6 -1 SHEAR DIR 3 339 311 330 342 4 7 341 11 260 261 320 350 SST (C) 28.0 27.6 27.1 27.0 27.2 26.7 26.3 25.5 26.1 21.4 11.1 7.8 7.2 POT. INT. (KT) 137 131 124 122 125 120 118 112 118 88 68 66 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 113 105 103 105 102 104 99 104 80 66 65 65 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.1 -55.2 -55.3 -55.3 -55.9 -56.0 -56.7 -57.1 -57.1 -57.6 -57.7 -58.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.7 -0.7 0.0 -0.5 -0.5 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 5 4 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 49 53 54 52 51 52 55 56 61 65 58 52 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 4 5 6 7 10 13 11 9 8 8 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR -63 -26 -6 16 37 46 31 16 2 15 -22 -95 -119 200 MB DIV 13 39 56 20 12 26 15 12 37 21 -7 -28 2 700-850 TADV 15 9 4 4 4 -3 9 0 -2 4 8 22 14 LAND (KM) 742 689 675 694 728 839 983 1053 778 468 251 -22 343 LAT (DEG N) 29.0 29.9 30.5 30.8 31.0 31.1 31.9 34.0 37.2 41.1 44.8 47.4 49.2 LONG(DEG W) 72.6 72.0 71.4 70.8 70.1 68.5 66.2 63.4 61.5 59.8 57.1 53.6 48.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 7 6 7 8 14 17 19 21 19 18 20 HEAT CONTENT 17 13 7 5 4 5 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 12 CX,CY: 4/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 803 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 16. 17. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 3. 0. 0. -2. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 7. 3. 2. 2. -1. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 9. 16. 23. 25. 26. 28. 29. 24. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 29.0 72.6 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022018 BERYL 07/12/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.35 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.06 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 175.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.75 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.5 28.4 to 141.4 0.54 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 31.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.68 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 11.6% 9.3% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 5.5% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 4.4% 3.5% 1.8% 0.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 5.4% 4.3% 2.8% 0.1% 0.3% 1.9% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022018 BERYL 07/12/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022018 BERYL 07/12/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 29 32 34 41 48 50 51 53 54 43 41 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 32 39 46 48 49 51 52 41 39 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 33 40 42 43 45 46 35 33 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 24 31 33 34 36 37 26 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT