* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022018 07/12/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 40 44 47 47 47 45 44 46 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 40 44 47 47 47 45 44 46 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 32 34 35 37 38 39 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 16 16 11 18 23 24 26 23 24 29 10 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 0 0 -4 -1 0 -1 -4 -9 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 56 8 8 338 311 329 329 344 351 2 1 312 269 SST (C) 28.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.7 27.8 26.9 26.7 26.7 25.7 17.5 POT. INT. (KT) 148 133 132 133 129 128 131 134 124 122 124 115 77 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 118 115 113 109 107 110 116 109 107 109 102 73 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.1 -55.1 -55.2 -55.5 -55.6 -56.0 -56.4 -56.8 -57.3 -57.0 -57.0 -56.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 10 9 9 8 8 7 8 7 6 4 3 700-500 MB RH 48 43 49 52 50 52 51 51 49 54 61 64 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -71 -79 -71 -30 -12 25 35 15 -6 2 0 2 -37 200 MB DIV 21 -4 13 38 51 0 27 -14 9 17 27 21 -33 700-850 TADV 11 16 13 9 6 4 1 11 4 14 -5 13 13 LAND (KM) 645 660 713 689 695 739 823 933 1106 1187 973 724 420 LAT (DEG N) 26.7 28.0 29.0 29.6 29.9 30.2 30.2 30.5 31.3 33.0 35.6 39.1 43.0 LONG(DEG W) 73.6 73.5 73.2 72.5 71.9 70.8 69.6 67.8 65.1 62.6 60.6 58.1 54.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 9 7 5 5 6 11 13 14 18 22 24 HEAT CONTENT 23 18 19 16 12 7 7 6 1 1 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 13 CX,CY: 0/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 799 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 19. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 3. -2. -6. -11. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 19. 22. 22. 22. 20. 19. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 26.7 73.6 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022018 BERYL 07/12/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.59 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.11 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 204.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.72 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.6 28.4 to 141.4 0.61 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 16.3% 13.4% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 0.0% Logistic: 4.3% 14.4% 12.0% 6.6% 1.9% 3.1% 1.0% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 10.3% 8.5% 5.2% 0.7% 1.0% 2.6% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022018 BERYL 07/12/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022018 BERYL 07/12/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 32 35 40 44 47 47 47 45 44 46 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 32 37 41 44 44 44 42 41 43 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 32 36 39 39 39 37 36 38 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 23 27 30 30 30 28 27 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT