* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022017 06/18/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 36 40 42 42 40 36 33 33 36 41 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 36 40 42 42 40 36 33 33 34 33 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 37 37 35 32 27 23 21 22 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 9 12 10 8 22 20 31 34 27 10 7 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 4 2 1 3 7 8 6 1 1 5 8 -3 SHEAR DIR 207 241 249 253 213 215 199 208 214 214 252 307 63 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.6 28.4 28.6 28.6 29.1 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 139 142 144 143 144 148 145 148 147 155 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 160 160 153 155 156 151 149 152 146 146 143 148 135 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -54.2 -54.3 -53.8 -54.1 -53.8 -54.1 -53.7 -53.4 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 10 9 10 9 11 11 11 12 12 700-500 MB RH 63 63 63 61 61 60 62 66 65 62 55 52 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 12 13 13 11 10 7 6 4 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 35 19 7 17 4 10 5 8 -9 -50 -89 -100 200 MB DIV 52 62 64 68 96 107 76 29 14 9 -1 -17 5 700-850 TADV -8 -6 -2 -1 0 5 5 10 5 0 3 2 -7 LAND (KM) 416 332 307 369 316 113 300 350 148 0 0 0 4 LAT (DEG N) 7.3 7.8 8.4 9.2 10.1 11.8 13.4 14.8 16.5 18.2 19.9 21.5 23.2 LONG(DEG W) 49.4 51.4 53.4 55.4 57.2 60.8 64.2 67.4 70.6 73.5 76.5 79.2 81.4 STM SPEED (KT) 20 21 21 21 20 19 18 17 17 16 16 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 40 47 28 36 42 22 23 34 60 21 8 15 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 22. 26. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -4. -7. -8. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -14. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 10. 12. 12. 10. 6. 3. 3. 6. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 7.3 49.4 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022017 TWO 06/18/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.80 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 38.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.25 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.39 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.89 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.46 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 130.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.81 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.1 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 24.4% 14.8% 8.6% 7.0% 12.9% 15.0% 15.1% Logistic: 4.2% 24.3% 11.1% 3.7% 3.5% 4.7% 4.9% 5.9% Bayesian: 0.7% 1.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 1.0% Consensus: 3.8% 16.7% 8.8% 4.1% 3.5% 5.9% 6.8% 7.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022017 TWO 06/18/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022017 TWO 06/18/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 33 36 40 42 42 40 36 33 33 34 33 18HR AGO 30 29 30 33 37 39 39 37 33 30 30 31 30 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 33 35 35 33 29 26 26 27 26 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 26 26 24 20 17 17 18 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT