* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALBERTO AL012018 05/28/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 46 45 43 39 38 38 40 36 35 34 V (KT) LAND 45 38 33 30 29 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 45 37 33 30 29 27 29 30 30 30 30 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 16 14 10 19 12 9 11 13 32 44 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -9 -4 -7 -3 -2 2 2 3 -4 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 205 200 225 209 194 212 183 149 190 223 226 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.4 26.6 24.0 21.9 17.3 12.7 8.2 4.0 2.2 3.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 129 120 99 88 74 68 65 64 63 63 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 110 110 105 88 79 69 66 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 -54.6 -54.5 -55.0 -55.3 -55.1 -55.2 -55.6 -55.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.2 0.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 -0.2 -0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 5 4 8 3 8 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 68 66 68 64 67 70 71 71 55 46 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 18 19 16 14 12 13 12 14 14 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 101 92 54 42 38 -2 32 81 110 41 -1 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 77 37 -7 37 60 19 48 45 61 2 14 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 4 4 0 14 2 21 -8 37 -11 -48 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 38 -40 -133 -283 -426 -750 -996 -996 -987 -909 -620 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.9 30.8 31.7 33.1 34.4 37.4 40.3 43.4 46.2 48.1 48.9 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 85.9 86.0 86.2 86.5 86.8 87.0 86.9 85.7 83.5 80.3 76.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 12 14 14 15 15 16 15 13 13 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 26 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -8. -8. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 2. -5. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -13. -15. -13. -14. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. -0. -2. -6. -7. -7. -5. -9. -10. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 29.9 85.9 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012018 ALBERTO 05/28/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.55 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 14.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.09 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.4 to -3.0 999.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.63 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.23 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 139.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.80 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 15.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.85 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012018 ALBERTO 05/28/18 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012018 ALBERTO 05/28/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 38 33 30 29 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 18HR AGO 45 44 39 36 35 34 35 36 36 36 36 36 36 12HR AGO 45 42 41 38 37 36 37 38 38 38 38 38 38 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 33 34 35 35 35 35 35 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT