* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALBERTO AL012018 05/28/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 53 53 54 49 44 43 42 46 36 36 35 V (KT) LAND 50 51 45 38 33 29 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 50 50 44 37 32 28 28 29 30 30 30 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 12 19 15 10 18 9 9 7 21 38 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 -5 -3 -3 -2 -1 2 2 1 -6 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 222 212 198 219 201 209 172 156 207 233 212 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.5 27.6 26.4 24.1 19.9 15.7 10.6 6.7 4.0 2.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 130 131 118 99 80 71 66 65 64 64 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 109 111 113 103 88 73 67 64 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.2 -53.8 -54.0 -54.4 -53.7 -54.4 -54.5 -54.9 -54.7 -55.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.6 -0.1 0.3 -0.3 1.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 5 4 10 2 7 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 63 64 63 65 63 68 71 71 69 52 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 22 19 20 15 13 13 13 17 11 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 103 111 102 59 43 30 29 52 102 124 40 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 73 44 5 28 35 17 41 48 95 4 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 6 5 8 7 9 9 35 18 20 -73 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 97 55 -22 -150 -279 -563 -870 -980 -979 -936 -786 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.0 29.9 30.7 31.9 33.0 35.7 38.5 41.3 44.0 46.5 48.9 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 86.0 86.1 86.3 86.5 86.6 87.0 87.1 86.5 85.0 82.3 78.8 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 12 13 14 14 14 15 16 16 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 22 28 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. -1. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -2. -8. -13. -14. -15. -12. -19. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 3. 4. -1. -6. -7. -8. -4. -14. -14. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 29.0 86.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012018 ALBERTO 05/28/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 19.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.13 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.4 to -3.0 999.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.77 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.24 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.32 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 207.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.73 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 25.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.75 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012018 ALBERTO 05/28/18 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012018 ALBERTO 05/28/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 51 45 38 33 29 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 18HR AGO 50 49 43 36 31 27 26 27 28 28 28 28 28 12HR AGO 50 47 46 39 34 30 29 30 31 31 31 31 31 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 35 31 30 31 32 32 32 32 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT