* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALBERTO AL012018 05/28/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 62 64 63 59 54 51 47 42 44 43 42 V (KT) LAND 55 59 62 50 40 31 28 29 29 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 55 59 62 52 41 31 28 29 29 30 30 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 5 11 17 12 17 16 13 9 9 23 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -1 -5 0 -2 -2 0 2 0 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 237 219 203 200 228 197 221 179 160 206 229 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 26.2 26.3 26.1 25.0 20.9 17.0 12.5 7.9 3.7 2.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 115 115 116 115 105 83 73 68 65 64 64 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 99 99 100 99 92 75 69 65 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.4 -54.2 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.7 -54.8 -55.0 -55.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.5 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.6 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 8 8 5 9 4 8 1 1 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 62 62 64 60 60 62 66 69 70 71 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 23 23 20 18 16 14 15 12 15 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 96 107 111 90 63 46 1 40 47 132 91 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 32 44 25 -19 51 40 48 37 64 25 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 2 8 6 4 18 3 9 13 29 -9 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 144 110 52 -54 -158 -391 -678 -999 -999 -983 -927 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.6 29.3 30.0 31.0 31.9 34.2 36.8 39.7 42.6 45.1 47.2 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 86.2 86.5 86.7 86.9 87.1 87.5 87.8 87.6 86.6 84.4 81.1 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 9 10 11 12 14 15 15 15 15 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 3 3 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 769 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -11. -14. -17. -19. -19. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -9. -12. -13. -17. -14. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 8. 4. -1. -4. -8. -13. -11. -12. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 28.6 86.2 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012018 ALBERTO 05/28/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 4.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.03 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.4 to -3.0 999.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.91 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.13 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.25 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 228.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.71 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 20.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.80 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012018 ALBERTO 05/28/18 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012018 ALBERTO 05/28/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 59 62 50 40 31 28 29 29 30 30 30 30 18HR AGO 55 54 57 45 35 26 23 24 24 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 55 52 51 39 29 20 17 18 18 19 19 19 19 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 35 26 23 24 24 25 25 25 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT