* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALBERTO AL012018 05/28/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 63 65 66 64 57 51 48 43 45 43 42 V (KT) LAND 55 59 63 65 48 34 29 28 29 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 55 60 64 66 50 34 29 28 29 30 30 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 11 8 11 18 7 20 13 12 11 23 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -4 -4 -5 -2 0 0 2 2 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 163 210 239 198 196 202 221 206 202 214 229 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.9 25.9 26.0 26.2 26.0 22.3 18.3 14.5 10.2 6.3 2.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 112 112 113 115 113 89 75 69 66 65 65 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 97 96 97 98 98 80 70 65 64 64 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -54.1 -54.4 -54.2 -53.8 -54.3 -53.8 -54.5 -54.7 -55.4 -55.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.3 0.8 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 8 8 4 11 3 8 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 66 62 61 62 62 62 64 71 75 75 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 24 23 22 20 17 14 14 14 16 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 101 103 105 106 79 30 4 13 28 94 116 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 44 32 30 46 20 22 17 28 64 55 89 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 2 5 9 6 5 8 17 34 9 -1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 156 96 77 15 -69 -301 -580 -857 -986 -937 -913 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.3 29.0 29.6 30.4 31.1 33.3 35.9 38.4 40.8 43.5 46.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 85.6 85.9 86.2 86.4 86.7 87.1 87.4 87.4 86.7 84.8 81.9 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 8 9 12 13 12 14 16 18 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 3 3 1 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 759 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -14. -16. -19. -19. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -8. -13. -14. -15. -13. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 10. 11. 9. 2. -4. -7. -12. -10. -12. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 28.3 85.6 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012018 ALBERTO 05/28/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.66 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 4.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.03 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.4 to -3.0 999.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.91 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.13 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.30 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 195.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.74 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 39.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.61 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012018 ALBERTO 05/28/18 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012018 ALBERTO 05/28/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 59 63 65 48 34 29 28 29 30 30 30 30 18HR AGO 55 54 58 60 43 29 24 23 24 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 55 52 51 53 36 22 17 16 17 18 18 18 18 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT