* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALBERTO AL012018 05/27/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 51 55 58 57 53 49 45 43 37 38 37 V (KT) LAND 45 48 51 55 42 32 28 27 28 29 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 52 55 44 32 28 27 28 29 30 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 9 9 7 8 10 16 13 10 9 8 18 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 -4 -1 2 0 0 2 5 2 -3 -10 SHEAR DIR 181 168 216 245 194 237 220 251 201 155 177 228 221 SST (C) 25.5 25.5 25.8 26.1 26.0 23.4 19.8 16.3 12.6 8.3 4.3 2.9 2.9 POT. INT. (KT) 110 109 112 114 113 94 79 71 67 65 63 62 62 ADJ. POT. INT. 98 97 97 97 96 83 72 67 65 64 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -54.6 -54.9 -54.6 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.6 -55.1 -55.2 -55.4 -56.0 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.0 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 5 5 8 5 9 4 8 1 4 0 0 700-500 MB RH 72 71 69 66 63 60 61 60 65 68 70 71 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 21 24 24 21 18 16 14 15 12 13 15 850 MB ENV VOR 81 87 88 87 91 36 29 0 37 22 86 88 69 200 MB DIV 50 34 24 18 33 3 40 38 46 44 66 39 35 700-850 TADV 12 4 1 6 7 10 11 6 20 13 33 -13 -40 LAND (KM) 196 112 28 4 -56 -236 -472 -723 -988 -963 -916 -851 -743 LAT (DEG N) 27.7 28.7 29.7 30.4 31.0 32.6 34.9 37.2 39.6 42.1 44.6 46.2 47.0 LONG(DEG W) 84.8 85.2 85.7 86.1 86.5 86.8 87.2 87.5 87.3 86.0 83.8 81.2 78.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 9 7 7 10 12 11 13 14 13 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 2 1 7 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 12 CX,CY: -1/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 0. 0. -3. -7. -11. -15. -14. -19. -18. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 12. 8. 4. -0. -2. -8. -7. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 27.7 84.8 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012018 ALBERTO 05/27/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.73 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 4.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.03 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.4 to -3.0 999.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.63 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 108.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.83 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 28.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.72 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012018 ALBERTO 05/27/18 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012018 ALBERTO 05/27/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 48 51 55 42 32 28 27 28 29 30 30 30 18HR AGO 45 44 47 51 38 28 24 23 24 25 26 26 26 12HR AGO 45 42 41 45 32 22 18 17 18 19 20 20 20 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT