* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALBERTO AL012018 05/27/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 42 44 50 50 51 51 49 49 46 45 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 42 44 50 42 32 28 27 29 29 30 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 38 39 42 38 30 28 27 29 29 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SUBT SHEAR (KT) 24 13 14 11 5 7 8 10 14 13 14 14 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 1 -2 0 -5 0 -1 0 0 0 3 0 SHEAR DIR 237 220 175 177 199 158 266 213 220 211 198 228 268 SST (C) 26.8 26.4 26.1 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.1 22.8 19.4 15.7 12.2 9.6 7.3 POT. INT. (KT) 122 118 115 115 115 115 115 91 78 70 66 65 64 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 106 102 101 100 99 99 81 71 66 64 63 63 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.8 -54.0 -53.6 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.0 -54.5 -54.7 -54.5 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 6 8 6 9 5 10 3 7 1 700-500 MB RH 71 71 70 66 62 60 62 60 59 67 70 66 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 21 21 20 21 18 15 15 13 15 13 15 850 MB ENV VOR 53 63 86 97 84 84 60 31 -7 30 20 77 99 200 MB DIV 25 7 44 34 27 38 1 38 34 33 21 40 23 700-850 TADV 16 11 15 8 3 2 0 6 2 14 12 35 7 LAND (KM) 185 274 244 264 205 111 -59 -266 -502 -762 -873 -726 -580 LAT (DEG N) 24.3 25.4 26.5 27.2 27.9 29.2 31.0 33.0 35.2 37.5 39.7 41.4 42.7 LONG(DEG W) 84.3 84.6 84.9 85.4 85.9 86.4 86.9 87.2 87.5 86.9 85.5 83.3 80.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 8 8 8 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 13 17 6 5 6 5 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 11 CX,CY: 3/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 0. -3. -4. -7. -7. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 15. 15. 16. 16. 14. 14. 11. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 24.3 84.3 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012018 ALBERTO 05/27/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.61 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 9.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.06 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.4 to -3.0 999.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.36 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.27 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 95.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.84 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 29.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.70 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012018 ALBERTO 05/27/18 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012018 ALBERTO 05/27/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 40 42 44 50 42 32 28 27 29 29 30 18HR AGO 35 34 37 39 41 47 39 29 25 24 26 26 27 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 35 41 33 23 19 18 20 20 21 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 33 25 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT