* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALBERTO AL012018 05/27/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 41 43 49 55 55 51 48 48 45 42 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 41 43 49 55 37 30 28 28 29 30 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 37 39 42 46 35 29 27 28 29 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SUBT SUBT SHEAR (KT) 26 19 13 8 4 7 8 7 14 5 6 7 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 3 -2 -3 0 1 2 2 7 3 2 SHEAR DIR 232 234 206 168 176 338 224 205 238 233 167 158 259 SST (C) 27.3 26.8 26.3 26.2 26.2 26.3 26.4 25.4 21.3 17.6 13.9 10.5 8.4 POT. INT. (KT) 128 123 117 116 115 115 117 108 84 74 68 66 65 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 111 105 102 101 99 101 94 76 69 65 64 63 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.5 -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -54.4 -53.6 -53.5 -52.8 -53.8 -54.1 -54.5 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.2 1.3 1.5 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 8 7 9 5 11 4 10 1 5 700-500 MB RH 69 69 68 67 66 61 62 61 55 60 68 71 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 20 22 22 23 25 22 18 15 15 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 64 59 62 88 94 78 78 41 25 -4 10 17 51 200 MB DIV 58 7 -10 24 16 15 23 32 13 27 52 36 39 700-850 TADV 12 13 6 5 2 3 4 9 0 21 40 0 20 LAND (KM) 119 236 264 266 234 154 61 -134 -366 -633 -886 -812 -658 LAT (DEG N) 23.4 24.6 25.8 26.7 27.6 28.7 29.9 31.8 34.0 36.4 38.7 40.8 42.4 LONG(DEG W) 84.8 84.8 84.8 85.2 85.6 86.5 87.0 87.4 87.9 87.7 86.7 84.6 81.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 10 8 6 8 10 12 12 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 31 26 16 7 6 7 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 11 CX,CY: 2/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 2. -4. -8. -9. -10. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 14. 20. 20. 16. 13. 13. 10. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 23.4 84.8 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012018 ALBERTO 05/27/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.59 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.11 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.4 to -3.0 999.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.39 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 91.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.85 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 16.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.83 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012018 ALBERTO 05/27/18 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012018 ALBERTO 05/27/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 38 41 43 49 55 37 30 28 28 29 30 18HR AGO 35 34 36 39 41 47 53 35 28 26 26 27 28 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 36 42 48 30 23 21 21 22 23 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 33 39 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT