* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALBERTO AL012018 05/26/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 44 47 51 57 58 55 53 52 53 49 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 44 47 51 57 43 32 28 27 28 29 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 38 39 41 45 37 30 28 27 28 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 21 28 20 13 10 1 6 9 13 13 10 9 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 4 0 -4 7 -1 2 4 3 0 SHEAR DIR 245 231 224 191 165 54 314 276 216 252 225 239 261 SST (C) 27.5 27.2 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.4 23.1 19.9 16.7 13.7 11.3 POT. INT. (KT) 131 128 121 120 119 117 117 117 92 79 71 68 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 118 109 106 104 101 100 100 81 72 66 65 64 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -54.1 -53.8 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.7 0.9 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 7 6 8 6 9 6 11 5 9 700-500 MB RH 70 69 67 69 66 62 57 54 54 55 64 66 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 17 18 22 21 21 23 20 17 16 15 16 13 850 MB ENV VOR 53 70 59 76 95 80 80 48 10 -32 29 7 57 200 MB DIV 92 54 10 7 32 4 29 -7 16 35 38 22 25 700-850 TADV 16 11 3 7 6 0 7 4 5 3 12 31 31 LAND (KM) 102 215 310 319 286 182 70 -56 -258 -482 -712 -899 -742 LAT (DEG N) 22.8 24.2 25.6 26.4 27.2 28.6 29.8 31.2 33.0 35.0 37.1 38.8 40.2 LONG(DEG W) 85.2 85.2 85.2 85.6 86.1 86.8 87.3 87.9 88.4 88.7 88.4 86.8 83.9 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 11 9 8 7 7 8 10 10 10 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 36 40 28 19 10 7 9 24 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 12 CX,CY: 2/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 6.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 5. 6. 6. 9. 6. 1. -1. -3. -3. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 16. 22. 23. 20. 18. 17. 18. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 22.8 85.2 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012018 ALBERTO 05/26/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.43 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 26.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.17 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.4 to -3.0 999.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.44 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 88.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.85 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 6.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012018 ALBERTO 05/26/18 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012018 ALBERTO 05/26/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 40 44 47 51 57 43 32 28 27 28 29 18HR AGO 35 34 37 41 44 48 54 40 29 25 24 25 26 12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 38 42 48 34 23 19 18 19 20 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 32 38 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT