* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALBERTO AL012018 05/26/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 39 41 44 47 49 51 51 52 50 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 38 39 41 44 47 34 29 27 27 28 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 35 35 35 37 40 31 28 27 27 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 25 18 18 12 8 7 10 4 4 10 6 7 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 4 1 5 -3 -2 2 3 0 0 8 7 SHEAR DIR 281 263 245 245 158 114 9 198 288 247 301 189 149 SST (C) 28.1 27.7 27.2 26.7 26.3 26.5 26.4 26.5 25.9 22.8 20.1 16.1 11.6 POT. INT. (KT) 139 134 128 122 117 118 117 118 112 90 80 72 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 125 118 111 104 103 101 100 95 79 72 68 66 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -54.4 -53.8 -54.3 -53.8 -54.3 -54.1 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 6 7 6 8 4 10 4 10 1 700-500 MB RH 70 68 69 67 69 66 61 61 60 60 65 71 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 57 60 52 67 80 74 72 24 6 3 16 32 200 MB DIV 44 86 68 43 42 14 3 39 -5 16 11 70 29 700-850 TADV 18 17 15 13 6 0 5 2 6 5 21 49 5 LAND (KM) 102 38 112 247 263 262 153 15 -103 -267 -449 -703 -678 LAT (DEG N) 20.9 22.2 23.5 24.8 26.0 27.4 28.8 30.3 31.6 33.1 34.7 37.1 39.9 LONG(DEG W) 85.0 84.8 84.5 84.7 84.9 86.0 86.6 87.2 87.7 87.8 87.3 85.8 83.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 13 13 10 8 8 7 7 8 11 15 17 HEAT CONTENT 67 15 23 20 13 7 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 9 CX,CY: 2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 16. 17. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 20.9 85.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012018 ALBERTO 05/26/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.51 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 27.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.18 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.4 to -3.0 999.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.48 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.41 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 93.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.84 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 20.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.80 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012018 ALBERTO 05/26/18 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012018 ALBERTO 05/26/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 37 38 39 41 44 47 34 29 27 27 28 18HR AGO 35 34 35 36 37 39 42 45 32 27 25 25 26 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 33 35 38 41 28 23 21 21 22 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 28 31 34 21 16 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT