* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALBERTO AL012018 05/26/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 41 45 52 53 56 54 53 50 46 46 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 41 45 52 53 56 54 44 32 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 37 38 39 39 41 43 37 30 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 30 23 22 25 21 12 5 13 11 11 15 18 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 2 -1 3 2 -3 5 -2 0 2 0 SHEAR DIR 267 276 249 245 244 177 353 354 293 200 251 222 258 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.3 27.0 27.0 26.8 26.7 26.5 23.6 19.9 16.2 POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 137 134 129 124 123 121 120 118 95 80 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 128 127 125 118 109 107 104 102 101 83 73 68 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.4 -53.0 -52.8 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.8 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 1.1 0.6 1.2 0.7 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 9 7 9 6 10 5 700-500 MB RH 72 68 67 65 64 65 59 54 55 59 57 61 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 15 18 20 23 20 20 17 14 12 10 12 850 MB ENV VOR 80 67 80 77 73 107 99 88 64 33 -14 0 6 200 MB DIV 31 48 87 71 65 31 -9 19 20 32 30 17 16 700-850 TADV 8 10 9 6 8 8 2 -5 8 1 2 7 15 LAND (KM) 183 163 108 75 161 377 339 210 100 -33 -222 -460 -604 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 20.2 21.0 22.3 23.6 25.7 26.9 28.2 29.5 31.0 32.7 34.7 36.9 LONG(DEG W) 85.7 85.6 85.4 85.3 85.2 86.0 86.8 87.4 87.8 88.0 88.0 86.7 84.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 11 13 12 9 7 7 7 8 9 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 46 51 53 41 40 63 17 4 10 26 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 14. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. -1. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 6. 11. 8. 9. 4. -1. -5. -8. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 17. 18. 21. 19. 18. 15. 11. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.3 85.7 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012018 ALBERTO 05/26/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.22 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 46.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.30 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.4 to -3.0 999.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.55 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 97.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.84 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012018 ALBERTO 05/26/18 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012018 ALBERTO 05/26/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 38 41 45 52 53 56 54 44 32 28 27 18HR AGO 35 34 36 39 43 50 51 54 52 42 30 26 25 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 38 45 46 49 47 37 25 21 20 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 29 36 37 40 38 28 16 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT