* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALBERTO AL012018 05/26/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 39 40 43 45 47 50 52 54 53 53 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 39 40 43 45 47 50 52 36 30 28 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 35 35 34 35 37 40 43 33 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 28 28 25 19 18 10 9 16 4 6 5 10 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -5 -1 2 0 -1 0 2 4 5 1 11 SHEAR DIR 241 263 278 271 252 197 104 354 341 360 258 290 264 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.5 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.7 26.8 25.4 22.0 18.8 POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 138 134 131 123 122 121 119 121 108 86 76 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 127 126 123 119 110 106 104 102 103 93 77 70 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.4 -53.8 -53.1 -52.8 -53.4 -53.0 -53.6 -53.1 -53.6 -53.0 -53.6 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 9 6 11 6 12 700-500 MB RH 70 70 68 67 65 65 61 52 56 55 55 58 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 77 64 62 66 66 82 99 86 92 35 12 -27 0 200 MB DIV 65 41 53 85 68 33 4 0 18 13 21 -8 57 700-850 TADV 2 5 9 9 6 2 -1 5 1 11 7 38 72 LAND (KM) 173 157 123 57 107 332 334 250 161 24 -136 -322 -543 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 20.1 20.9 21.9 22.9 25.3 26.8 27.8 28.9 30.2 31.9 33.6 35.4 LONG(DEG W) 85.8 85.6 85.5 85.3 85.2 85.4 86.3 87.2 87.6 88.1 88.3 87.8 86.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 9 10 11 10 7 6 6 8 9 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 39 41 44 41 39 47 18 6 8 10 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 95/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 14. 14. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 15. 17. 19. 18. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.3 85.8 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012018 ALBERTO 05/26/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.24 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 40.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.26 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.4 to -3.0 999.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.1 28.4 to 139.6 0.55 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.44 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 93.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.84 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 10.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.90 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012018 ALBERTO 05/26/18 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012018 ALBERTO 05/26/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 37 39 40 43 45 47 50 52 36 30 28 18HR AGO 35 34 35 37 38 41 43 45 48 50 34 28 26 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 34 37 39 41 44 46 30 24 22 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 29 31 33 36 38 22 16 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT