* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALBERTO AL012018 05/25/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 41 45 52 62 61 62 57 53 45 42 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 41 45 52 62 61 62 57 40 31 28 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 39 40 44 48 50 50 52 39 30 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 26 28 23 15 14 3 16 14 22 15 21 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 0 -1 0 0 7 2 0 9 3 5 4 SHEAR DIR 247 241 260 281 271 237 115 332 304 283 258 281 276 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.1 26.6 26.6 26.9 27.0 26.5 23.9 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 136 134 132 126 120 118 120 123 117 95 84 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 124 123 122 120 114 106 101 101 104 100 82 74 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -53.6 -53.9 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -52.9 -52.0 -52.1 -51.7 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.2 2.0 1.5 1.9 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 5 9 7 10 7 11 700-500 MB RH 71 70 68 65 65 64 65 60 52 51 49 48 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 14 17 21 27 25 24 21 19 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR 70 70 68 55 62 75 96 98 75 49 19 -24 0 200 MB DIV 54 68 55 42 41 45 4 4 30 -16 22 16 9 700-850 TADV 3 0 4 6 5 8 2 5 -2 16 8 14 32 LAND (KM) 109 110 86 110 113 297 277 204 121 66 -100 -218 -333 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 20.1 20.7 21.6 22.5 24.9 27.3 28.6 29.0 29.8 31.3 32.6 33.7 LONG(DEG W) 86.4 86.3 86.1 85.9 85.6 85.5 86.2 87.1 88.0 88.6 88.8 88.6 88.1 STM SPEED (KT) 4 7 8 9 11 12 10 6 4 6 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 27 26 28 32 37 53 9 6 9 10 31 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 12.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 15. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 15. 13. 12. 8. 4. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 10. 17. 27. 26. 27. 22. 18. 10. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.4 86.4 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012018 ALBERTO 05/25/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.25 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 30.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.19 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.4 to -3.0 999.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.53 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.39 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 88.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.85 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 11.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.88 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012018 ALBERTO 05/25/18 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012018 ALBERTO 05/25/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 40 41 45 52 62 61 62 57 40 31 28 18HR AGO 35 34 37 38 42 49 59 58 59 54 37 28 25 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 36 43 53 52 53 48 31 22 19 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 29 36 46 45 46 41 24 15 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT