* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALBERTO AL012018 05/25/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 41 43 48 55 58 56 54 49 47 44 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 41 43 48 55 58 56 47 35 29 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 38 39 41 44 45 44 40 32 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 28 24 24 29 23 18 18 11 11 18 16 20 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 0 0 -1 5 1 0 2 4 4 3 1 SHEAR DIR 263 257 253 270 285 223 193 122 356 309 320 280 295 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.3 26.6 26.5 27.0 27.1 26.5 24.2 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 137 135 135 133 132 129 121 118 123 123 116 97 86 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 122 122 119 120 118 108 103 104 102 98 83 75 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.9 -54.1 -53.4 -53.9 -53.1 -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 -53.2 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.6 -0.1 1.0 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 7 8 7 8 6 12 6 13 7 700-500 MB RH 69 67 68 66 64 62 64 60 48 45 46 45 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 11 12 12 13 16 21 22 19 17 15 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR 56 65 69 63 56 77 76 84 59 50 -5 4 11 200 MB DIV 35 36 42 45 45 62 5 24 -21 -14 0 10 -18 700-850 TADV 2 2 0 1 2 2 10 4 3 0 8 9 33 LAND (KM) 46 64 60 51 76 234 314 183 77 -8 -111 -224 -334 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 87.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 6 7 9 13 12 9 6 4 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 22 21 22 21 21 50 13 7 12 26 29 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 7.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 12. 13. 8. 6. 2. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 20. 23. 21. 19. 14. 12. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.4 87.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012018 ALBERTO 05/25/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.17 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 21.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.14 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.4 to -3.0 999.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.52 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 102.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.84 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012018 ALBERTO 05/25/18 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012018 ALBERTO 05/25/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 39 41 43 48 55 58 56 47 35 29 27 18HR AGO 35 34 36 38 40 45 52 55 53 44 32 26 24 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 35 40 47 50 48 39 27 21 19 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 32 39 42 40 31 19 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT