* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * ARLENE AL012017 04/21/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 53 56 61 65 69 70 71 73 72 71 V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 53 56 61 65 69 70 71 73 72 71 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 48 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 15 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 324 292 311 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 16.9 18.1 19.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 75 76 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 70 71 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -58.1 -57.3 -56.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.6 1.6 1.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 51 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 23 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 224 209 166 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 -13 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 5 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 815 796 811 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.9 39.7 39.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 49.3 51.3 53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 24 CX,CY: -22/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 1045 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -10. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 0. -3. -5. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 3. 7. 11. 14. 19. 22. 24. 27. 28. 29. 26. 24. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 13. 16. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -4. -5. -6. -5. -6. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 11. 16. 20. 24. 25. 26. 28. 27. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 39.9 49.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012017 ARLENE 04/21/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.40 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.8 to -3.1 0.34 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.3 -23.1 to 181.5 0.08 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 152.3 960.3 to -67.1 0.79 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012017 ARLENE 04/21/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012017 ARLENE 04/21/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 49 53 56 61 65 69 70 71 73 72 71 18HR AGO 45 44 46 50 53 58 62 66 67 68 70 69 68 12HR AGO 45 42 41 45 48 53 57 61 62 63 65 64 63 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 38 43 47 51 52 53 55 54 53 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT