* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * ARLENE AL012017 04/20/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 46 54 61 68 78 87 94 100 104 106 106 105 V (KT) LAND 40 46 54 61 68 78 87 94 100 104 106 106 105 V (KT) LGEM 40 46 51 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 4 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 246 218 315 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 18.2 17.9 17.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 76 77 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 71 72 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -60.4 -59.8 -59.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.7 1.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 52 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 21 23 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 178 197 190 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 38 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1462 1245 1030 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.3 38.6 39.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 40.7 42.7 44.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 20 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 15 CX,CY: -2/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 8.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -12. -11. -11. -10. -10. -10. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 3. 7. 12. 16. 21. 25. 27. 31. 33. 34. 32. 32. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 13. 15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 14. 22. 28. 38. 47. 54. 60. 64. 66. 66. 65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 37.3 40.7 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012017 ARLENE 04/20/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 28.8 to 2.9 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.51 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.3 -23.1 to 181.5 0.22 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.03 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 140.7 960.3 to -67.1 0.80 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012017 ARLENE 04/20/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012017 ARLENE 04/20/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 46 54 61 68 78 87 94 100 104 106 106 105 18HR AGO 40 39 47 54 61 71 80 87 93 97 99 99 98 12HR AGO 40 37 36 43 50 60 69 76 82 86 88 88 87 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 37 47 56 63 69 73 75 75 74 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT