* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALEX AL012016 01/15/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 61 62 62 61 64 64 66 68 68 63 55 V (KT) LAND 60 59 61 62 62 61 64 64 66 68 68 63 55 V (KT) LGE mod 60 58 55 52 49 43 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 21 29 35 30 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 15 14 20 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 202 177 159 152 146 157 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 14.8 13.0 10.2 5.8 5.2 2.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 76 75 73 71 69 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 74 73 71 70 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -63.3 -63.6 -63.1 -61.4 -62.0 -64.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 67 66 66 71 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 34 34 36 33 31 27 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 106 133 159 215 234 164 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 152 147 129 83 57 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 100 150 102 -45 42 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1538 1530 1382 1496 1360 940 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 41.5 45.5 49.4 52.6 55.8 58.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 27.7 28.6 29.5 32.4 35.3 44.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 38 40 38 37 32 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 35 CX,CY: 0/ 35 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -13. -17. -21. -23. -25. -27. -28. -29. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -17. -18. -17. -15. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 4. 8. 13. 19. 30. 39. 46. 53. 60. 65. 66. 68. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -24. -28. -31. -33. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -2. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 17. 17. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -4. -8. -17. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 4. 4. 6. 8. 8. 3. -5. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012016 ALEX 01/15/16 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 11.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.2/ -0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 113.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012016 ALEX 01/15/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)