* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALEX AL012016 01/15/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 55 59 59 56 60 60 63 66 68 66 62 V (KT) LAND 55 54 55 59 59 56 60 60 63 66 68 66 62 V (KT) LGE mod 55 52 50 49 48 42 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 19 21 32 34 23 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 10 15 19 22 29 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 229 198 168 156 152 97 244 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 15.8 14.9 13.7 11.1 6.3 4.0 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 75 75 75 74 71 69 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 72 72 73 72 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -63.1 -63.3 -62.9 -62.2 -61.7 -61.6 -62.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 63 69 66 67 75 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 33 37 36 38 34 27 26 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 75 106 156 193 180 238 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 104 137 142 127 75 47 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 58 107 103 83 -42 -7 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1537 1564 1606 1479 1443 1127 232 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.4 41.3 44.2 48.4 52.6 57.1 55.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 26.9 27.9 29.0 30.3 31.6 39.5 54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 26 30 36 43 36 33 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 22 CX,CY: 4/ 22 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -18. -20. -21. -22. -23. -24. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -3. -4. -8. -10. -13. -15. -15. -14. -13. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 4. 8. 13. 18. 27. 37. 43. 50. 56. 60. 61. 63. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -24. -28. -31. -33. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 0. -6. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 10. 11. 13. 14. 16. 16. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 4. 4. 1. 5. 5. 8. 11. 13. 11. 7. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012016 ALEX 01/15/16 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 16.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 117.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012016 ALEX 01/15/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)