* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972017 09/15/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 38 42 51 59 64 62 60 56 52 47 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 38 42 51 59 64 62 60 56 52 47 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 39 44 50 55 56 53 48 40 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 14 8 6 14 10 8 17 25 34 36 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 1 0 1 0 0 4 8 2 4 6 10 SHEAR DIR 1 7 17 27 3 1 344 298 251 267 263 261 243 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.4 27.6 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 145 142 141 137 136 139 142 144 143 133 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 164 158 149 142 138 130 128 134 138 141 140 130 118 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.3 -54.1 -53.8 -54.3 -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 -53.6 -53.9 -54.2 -54.7 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 65 62 59 63 65 60 58 58 60 60 60 61 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 12 13 14 16 16 14 13 11 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR -38 -39 -50 -44 -35 -31 -25 -11 -11 -33 -40 -46 -15 200 MB DIV 62 50 16 18 41 -24 -13 29 27 2 11 44 63 700-850 TADV -11 -7 -4 -3 -1 -4 -1 0 0 1 2 9 20 LAND (KM) 881 1078 1219 1346 1435 1539 1564 1574 1635 1774 1945 2012 2089 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.8 11.1 11.0 10.8 10.5 10.4 11.0 12.2 13.4 14.6 16.2 18.7 LONG(DEG W) 24.7 26.6 28.1 29.3 30.1 31.0 31.2 31.5 32.4 33.9 35.6 37.6 39.3 STM SPEED (KT) 20 17 13 10 7 3 1 6 8 10 11 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 15 15 22 30 29 23 22 18 12 9 21 8 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 21 CX,CY: -19/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 7.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 24. 27. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. -1. -4. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 1. -1. -4. -7. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 21. 29. 34. 32. 30. 26. 22. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.5 24.7 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972017 INVEST 09/15/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 30.1 to 2.9 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 22.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.14 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.41 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.1 28.4 to 139.6 0.82 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.32 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 155.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.78 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972017 INVEST 09/15/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 38 42 51 59 64 62 60 56 52 47 18HR AGO 30 29 31 35 39 48 56 61 59 57 53 49 44 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 34 43 51 56 54 52 48 44 39 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 33 41 46 44 42 38 34 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT