* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972017 09/14/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 33 43 53 60 61 57 56 55 50 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 33 43 53 60 61 57 56 55 50 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 33 37 42 46 45 41 35 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 13 13 10 9 6 9 13 21 29 30 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 5 2 0 0 0 1 1 7 11 6 5 3 SHEAR DIR 350 7 17 24 38 354 1 303 237 250 251 243 243 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 27.7 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 149 146 142 138 137 140 142 142 141 133 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 167 162 157 150 141 131 129 135 138 137 136 128 117 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -54.1 -54.3 -54.1 -53.7 -54.5 -53.5 -54.0 -53.2 -53.6 -53.7 -54.4 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 68 64 61 59 61 62 58 57 58 58 56 59 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 12 14 16 17 17 16 14 13 13 10 850 MB ENV VOR -36 -26 -33 -42 -41 -24 -19 -11 -10 -15 -35 -30 -5 200 MB DIV 64 69 49 14 22 3 -27 10 10 13 -35 16 57 700-850 TADV -12 -11 -7 -3 -5 -4 -1 0 0 3 11 14 27 LAND (KM) 666 865 1052 1198 1311 1460 1487 1506 1569 1682 1847 2009 2176 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.7 11.0 11.1 11.1 10.7 10.8 11.5 12.8 13.9 15.0 16.5 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 22.6 24.6 26.4 27.9 29.0 30.3 30.6 31.0 31.9 33.1 34.7 36.2 37.7 STM SPEED (KT) 21 19 16 13 9 3 2 6 8 9 10 12 15 HEAT CONTENT 19 15 15 21 29 27 25 20 13 12 21 18 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 21 CX,CY: -19/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 2. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. -4. -4. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 8. 18. 28. 35. 36. 32. 31. 30. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.3 22.6 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972017 INVEST 09/14/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 19.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.13 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.4 to -3.0 999.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.92 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.35 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 135.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.80 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972017 INVEST 09/14/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 28 33 43 53 60 61 57 56 55 50 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 32 42 52 59 60 56 55 54 49 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 28 38 48 55 56 52 51 50 45 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 20 30 40 47 48 44 43 42 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT