* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972017 09/14/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 22 25 33 43 53 59 56 55 58 53 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 22 25 33 43 53 59 56 55 58 53 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 24 26 31 35 36 35 32 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 9 10 11 10 8 9 5 7 15 25 29 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 8 5 4 5 2 -1 2 6 13 6 5 7 SHEAR DIR 351 343 8 17 16 353 347 298 274 231 258 246 245 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.4 27.9 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 155 151 149 149 146 142 140 139 140 143 142 136 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 170 162 158 155 149 142 134 130 134 137 138 130 120 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.4 -54.3 -54.7 -54.3 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 71 68 64 61 59 60 58 58 54 53 54 55 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 12 12 13 13 14 16 17 14 13 14 11 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -30 -29 -30 -42 -23 -17 -3 -8 -11 -29 -31 -34 200 MB DIV 64 74 85 65 37 14 -35 -9 4 16 -20 -2 55 700-850 TADV -13 -12 -11 -6 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 0 5 10 16 LAND (KM) 503 652 815 979 1110 1314 1461 1515 1575 1645 1773 1922 2128 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.9 10.2 10.4 10.8 11.3 11.6 11.9 12.5 13.4 14.6 16.1 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 20.5 22.3 24.0 25.6 26.9 29.1 30.6 31.2 31.9 32.7 34.0 35.4 37.2 STM SPEED (KT) 19 18 16 15 12 10 5 3 6 7 10 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 19 20 18 15 15 29 22 17 13 12 16 25 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 12. 19. 25. 29. 34. 37. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. -1. -3. -2. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 2. 5. 13. 23. 33. 39. 36. 35. 38. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.5 20.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972017 INVEST 09/14/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.11 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.4 to -3.0 999.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.99 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.45 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 104.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.83 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972017 INVEST 09/14/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 20 22 25 33 43 53 59 56 55 58 53 18HR AGO 20 19 19 21 24 32 42 52 58 55 54 57 52 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 21 29 39 49 55 52 51 54 49 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT