* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972017 07/28/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 27 33 40 47 54 60 67 76 79 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 27 33 40 47 54 60 67 76 79 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 23 25 28 31 36 42 52 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 15 17 17 15 17 17 13 5 5 2 2 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -9 -7 -7 -7 -5 -7 -3 -2 -1 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 119 115 113 116 115 95 85 98 91 65 59 89 256 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.8 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 135 136 138 137 137 139 140 141 144 149 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 128 131 134 137 139 139 138 139 141 146 153 158 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.1 -53.7 -53.9 -54.3 -54.1 -54.8 -54.3 -54.9 -54.6 -55.1 -54.8 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 63 63 64 64 63 62 68 67 68 69 71 70 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 7 3 16 21 28 21 23 41 39 32 31 19 200 MB DIV 41 27 21 22 26 4 1 -27 -2 -19 10 -6 35 700-850 TADV 0 2 2 6 5 1 0 0 0 -2 -3 -6 0 LAND (KM) 1788 1772 1728 1645 1542 1315 1064 887 770 721 654 596 546 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.9 11.0 10.9 10.6 10.1 9.3 9.0 9.1 9.7 10.3 10.8 11.1 LONG(DEG W) 36.3 36.6 37.1 37.9 38.8 40.9 43.1 44.9 46.5 48.0 49.9 52.3 55.1 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 6 9 10 11 11 8 8 9 11 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 11 12 14 14 12 11 14 24 40 39 27 31 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 28. 33. 36. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 11. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 13. 20. 27. 34. 40. 47. 56. 59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.6 36.3 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972017 INVEST 07/28/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.55 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.08 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.51 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.75 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.27 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 83.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.85 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 10.1% 4.9% 1.1% 0.4% 3.4% 7.9% 13.4% Bayesian: 0.6% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 3.7% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 1.1% 2.7% 4.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972017 INVEST 07/28/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972017 INVEST 07/28/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 23 25 27 33 40 47 54 60 67 76 79 18HR AGO 20 19 21 23 25 31 38 45 52 58 65 74 77 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 20 26 33 40 47 53 60 69 72 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT