* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972017 07/28/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 29 35 42 50 55 61 66 73 78 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 29 35 42 50 55 61 66 73 78 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 22 24 27 29 32 36 42 50 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 15 18 17 14 16 13 9 3 3 2 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -8 -8 -7 -6 -4 -5 0 -2 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 119 119 117 118 123 98 95 95 113 87 98 324 250 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.9 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 136 138 139 138 138 139 140 140 144 151 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 131 131 135 138 139 140 139 139 140 147 156 162 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.5 -54.2 -53.8 -54.0 -54.3 -54.4 -54.7 -54.6 -55.0 -54.9 -55.0 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 60 62 63 63 64 64 68 68 68 69 71 71 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 11 4 2 13 20 18 10 27 24 26 15 14 200 MB DIV 53 51 34 22 25 6 4 -19 -10 -10 10 -11 35 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 2 5 2 0 0 0 -1 -3 -4 -2 LAND (KM) 1770 1768 1723 1659 1571 1355 1130 930 807 731 662 554 495 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.6 10.7 10.6 10.4 9.8 9.0 8.6 8.7 9.2 9.8 10.0 10.2 LONG(DEG W) 36.3 36.5 37.0 37.6 38.4 40.3 42.2 44.1 45.6 47.2 49.0 51.4 54.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 5 7 9 10 10 8 8 8 11 12 14 HEAT CONTENT 10 11 13 13 12 11 14 21 31 43 33 33 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 29. 33. 36. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 15. 22. 30. 35. 41. 46. 53. 58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.2 36.3 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972017 INVEST 07/28/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 11.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.08 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.53 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.77 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.32 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 83.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.85 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.5% 16.4% 8.9% 3.0% 1.5% 7.9% 20.6% 23.6% Bayesian: 1.1% 3.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% Consensus: 2.2% 6.5% 3.2% 1.0% 0.5% 2.7% 7.0% 7.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972017 INVEST 07/28/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972017 INVEST 07/28/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 24 27 29 35 42 50 55 61 66 73 78 18HR AGO 20 19 21 24 26 32 39 47 52 58 63 70 75 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 21 27 34 42 47 53 58 65 70 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT