* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972016 09/28/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 42 45 55 65 69 71 76 79 88 90 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 42 45 55 65 69 71 76 79 88 90 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 40 42 44 49 52 53 54 56 58 62 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 8 10 17 11 15 11 11 8 4 4 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 0 0 7 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 214 241 247 243 249 275 258 264 239 231 231 14 242 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.0 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 159 159 161 160 152 148 147 148 150 153 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 165 166 165 164 165 162 150 143 140 140 140 143 147 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.0 -52.3 -51.9 -51.8 -51.4 -51.9 -51.3 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 12 11 12 10 11 9 10 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 52 52 53 52 51 54 57 61 66 71 71 72 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 17 18 21 24 23 23 26 27 31 32 850 MB ENV VOR 52 51 45 38 38 56 70 79 98 113 125 122 127 200 MB DIV 62 55 73 79 83 95 74 56 67 86 82 83 80 700-850 TADV 4 2 2 0 0 0 3 3 6 3 4 3 5 LAND (KM) 537 423 374 410 441 333 292 233 268 361 276 157 23 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 17 16 16 14 12 9 7 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 69 80 60 48 74 98 86 53 43 47 63 72 74 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 10.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 12. 18. 22. 25. 28. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -15. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 7. 7. 10. 10. 15. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 20. 30. 34. 36. 41. 44. 53. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.5 56.9 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972016 INVEST 09/28/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 8.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 28.8 to 2.9 0.69 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 66.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.43 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 37.5 to 2.9 0.42 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.8 to -3.1 0.75 4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.46 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.1 28.4 to 139.1 0.92 2.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 240.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.70 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 4.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 10.4% 46.4% 25.8% 12.0% 9.0% 10.5% 25.5% Logistic: 6.3% 39.0% 23.8% 8.9% 0.0% 12.4% 8.4% Bayesian: 0.5% 3.8% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 3.4% Consensus: 5.7% 29.7% 16.8% 7.0% 3.0% 7.7% 12.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972016 INVEST 09/28/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972016 INVEST 09/28/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 39 42 45 55 65 69 71 76 79 88 90 18HR AGO 35 34 36 39 42 52 62 66 68 73 76 85 87 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 37 47 57 61 63 68 71 80 82 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 38 48 52 54 59 62 71 73 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT