* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972016 09/28/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 37 40 49 60 67 68 72 79 84 92 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 37 40 49 60 67 68 72 79 84 92 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 35 37 42 46 49 50 51 53 56 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 8 4 6 11 9 15 12 11 3 2 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 1 2 1 4 6 1 1 3 5 2 0 SHEAR DIR 171 215 240 260 252 277 276 264 250 262 224 81 26 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.1 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 158 160 159 159 159 161 155 146 145 146 148 151 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 166 170 168 166 165 166 156 142 137 139 140 141 144 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.1 -52.3 -51.8 -52.0 -51.7 -52.1 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 12 12 10 11 9 10 8 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 51 51 52 52 52 53 57 63 66 71 73 75 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 15 17 18 20 22 23 22 23 27 27 31 850 MB ENV VOR 57 61 60 55 58 60 70 80 100 120 141 133 134 200 MB DIV 40 59 47 64 74 77 88 50 58 87 98 105 103 700-850 TADV 3 5 3 2 2 2 2 5 1 7 5 0 2 LAND (KM) 670 497 364 317 344 370 242 178 183 279 346 227 123 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 19 18 17 16 16 13 9 6 7 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 75 71 74 48 45 73 92 50 38 40 51 68 72 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 10.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 5. 12. 18. 23. 27. 31. 34. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 9. 7. 8. 12. 12. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 10. 19. 30. 37. 38. 42. 49. 55. 63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.1 55.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972016 INVEST 09/28/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 8.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.85 5.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 62.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.40 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.49 2.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.8 to -3.1 0.81 4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.39 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.7 28.4 to 139.1 0.98 3.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 206.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.73 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 4.2 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.1 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 29% is 5.7 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 9.1% 49.2% 29.2% 12.2% 9.5% 10.6% 29.1% Logistic: 3.7% 32.9% 17.4% 4.5% 0.0% 11.7% 16.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 3.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% Consensus: 4.4% 28.4% 15.6% 5.6% 3.2% 7.4% 15.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972016 INVEST 09/28/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972016 INVEST 09/28/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 37 40 49 60 67 68 72 79 84 92 18HR AGO 30 29 31 35 38 47 58 65 66 70 77 82 90 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 33 42 53 60 61 65 72 77 85 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 32 43 50 51 55 62 67 75 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT