* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972016 09/27/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 40 46 56 62 65 69 77 77 83 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 40 46 56 62 65 69 77 77 83 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 35 36 40 42 43 42 42 43 45 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 13 12 10 17 15 18 16 13 8 7 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 0 2 2 2 5 1 -1 -1 2 2 3 SHEAR DIR 165 167 212 228 220 243 265 247 273 243 215 256 248 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.1 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 158 158 159 162 158 152 146 145 146 152 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 165 165 164 166 165 166 158 150 141 137 138 145 150 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -51.6 -52.0 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 13 11 12 10 10 9 10 8 9 700-500 MB RH 49 49 49 49 49 50 55 60 64 68 73 75 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 15 16 17 20 20 20 22 26 25 29 850 MB ENV VOR 47 50 51 51 46 49 51 69 83 106 114 125 123 200 MB DIV 39 34 44 40 51 75 80 64 54 76 121 108 99 700-850 TADV 1 2 3 3 2 2 -1 4 2 4 4 5 0 LAND (KM) 747 605 489 404 413 402 352 278 193 271 370 251 54 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 17 18 17 15 13 11 8 6 6 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 81 68 75 81 41 89 88 79 42 40 46 66 73 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 10.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 18. 23. 27. 32. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -15. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 7. 6. 8. 13. 11. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 26. 32. 35. 39. 47. 47. 53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.0 54.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972016 INVEST 09/27/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 6.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 28.8 to 2.9 0.71 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 69.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.45 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 37.5 to 2.9 0.62 3.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.67 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.32 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.1 28.4 to 139.1 0.96 2.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 232.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.71 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 3.5 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 8.7% 40.6% 23.3% 11.8% 9.0% 9.8% 20.0% Logistic: 2.7% 16.5% 7.1% 1.8% 0.0% 3.4% 4.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 19.3% 10.2% 4.5% 3.0% 4.4% 8.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972016 INVEST 09/27/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972016 INVEST 09/27/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 37 40 46 56 62 65 69 77 77 83 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 37 43 53 59 62 66 74 74 80 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 38 48 54 57 61 69 69 75 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 29 39 45 48 52 60 60 66 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT