* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972016 09/27/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 37 41 49 57 68 73 76 81 88 92 V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 37 41 49 57 68 73 76 81 88 92 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 36 39 46 52 56 57 56 56 59 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 3 3 7 6 7 9 11 14 9 9 7 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -2 -1 1 5 5 6 2 5 4 5 1 SHEAR DIR 211 87 140 242 263 277 273 273 272 250 275 316 35 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 163 161 160 157 157 153 144 142 143 145 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 170 168 172 173 169 165 163 153 141 136 135 138 140 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.0 -52.4 -51.6 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 11 11 11 12 10 10 9 10 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 56 55 53 52 52 52 56 60 64 68 72 74 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 15 16 17 19 20 23 24 24 25 28 29 850 MB ENV VOR 64 58 58 63 66 68 66 77 84 101 121 132 132 200 MB DIV 47 27 34 56 50 72 69 71 46 70 119 91 89 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 5 3 5 1 6 5 8 7 5 -1 LAND (KM) 643 662 604 435 287 266 300 187 93 135 219 304 319 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 52.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 17 18 18 17 16 12 10 6 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 58 78 72 70 61 41 49 71 36 30 34 38 56 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 11.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 10. 12. 11. 11. 14. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 11. 19. 27. 38. 43. 46. 51. 58. 62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.3 52.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972016 INVEST 09/27/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 8.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.93 6.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 67.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.44 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 37.5 to 2.9 0.70 4.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.8 to -3.1 0.57 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.32 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.4 28.4 to 139.1 1.00 3.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 192.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.75 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 4.3 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 4.4 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 3.7 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.7 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.3 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 9.9% 50.0% 31.9% 14.1% 10.3% 18.0% 26.9% Logistic: 3.3% 27.4% 11.9% 3.0% 0.0% 8.6% 22.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.4% 26.3% 14.7% 5.7% 3.4% 8.9% 16.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972016 INVEST 09/27/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972016 INVEST 09/27/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 34 37 41 49 57 68 73 76 81 88 92 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 39 47 55 66 71 74 79 86 90 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 33 41 49 60 65 68 73 80 84 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 32 40 51 56 59 64 71 75 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT