* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972016 09/27/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 43 55 63 76 82 85 86 95 98 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 43 55 63 76 82 85 86 95 98 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 39 43 52 61 69 74 73 71 71 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 3 2 5 6 9 12 12 13 14 9 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 0 -1 -1 -1 1 0 3 1 1 2 2 SHEAR DIR 176 198 111 154 261 315 275 299 259 267 257 271 47 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 160 162 162 159 155 154 151 146 144 145 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 173 168 168 170 170 165 160 156 148 139 135 136 137 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -52.2 -52.6 -51.9 -52.3 -51.7 -51.7 -51.4 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 12 10 11 9 10 8 9 7 700-500 MB RH 58 56 55 52 53 53 54 59 62 65 71 78 79 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 15 15 19 19 23 24 24 24 30 32 850 MB ENV VOR 65 61 58 56 61 65 66 64 69 76 80 103 95 200 MB DIV 104 44 25 35 63 73 84 74 89 68 78 108 81 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 3 3 3 4 5 6 6 7 8 0 LAND (KM) 683 654 662 595 466 238 233 256 180 144 163 191 261 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 51.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 15 15 16 15 12 9 5 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 46 61 78 69 58 48 36 36 43 53 47 47 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 13.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 5. 11. 18. 24. 28. 32. 35. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 6. 11. 12. 11. 10. 17. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 25. 33. 46. 52. 55. 56. 65. 68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.1 51.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972016 INVEST 09/27/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 9.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.93 5.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 62.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.40 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 37.5 to 2.9 0.57 3.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.49 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.38 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.7 28.4 to 139.1 1.00 3.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 184.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.76 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 4.2 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 28% is 5.5 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 48.5% 29.1% 12.6% 9.8% 16.4% 28.2% Logistic: 7.8% 53.5% 34.0% 15.6% 0.0% 27.8% 35.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% Consensus: 5.5% 34.9% 21.2% 9.4% 3.3% 14.7% 21.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972016 INVEST 09/27/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972016 INVEST 09/27/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 39 43 55 63 76 82 85 86 95 98 18HR AGO 30 29 32 36 40 52 60 73 79 82 83 92 95 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 34 46 54 67 73 76 77 86 89 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 36 44 57 63 66 67 76 79 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT