* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972016 09/27/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 34 39 52 69 82 90 99 101 108 109 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 34 39 52 69 82 90 99 101 108 109 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 32 35 46 58 70 81 85 83 82 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 3 7 7 1 4 5 8 13 7 6 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 0 -3 -4 4 3 7 5 2 7 6 9 SHEAR DIR 86 158 157 75 75 233 25 313 313 291 291 329 322 SST (C) 29.9 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 171 164 164 164 164 161 154 151 150 144 140 140 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 174 173 173 173 173 169 160 155 149 139 132 133 135 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -52.3 -51.6 -51.9 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 12 11 12 11 10 10 8 10 8 8 700-500 MB RH 61 58 54 52 49 47 51 56 63 68 69 74 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 15 16 17 20 22 24 25 28 27 29 30 850 MB ENV VOR 65 68 64 67 67 77 91 82 81 78 79 99 100 200 MB DIV 118 102 44 42 64 63 98 93 91 77 92 134 94 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 4 4 4 7 6 8 5 8 7 LAND (KM) 630 582 560 562 482 221 155 196 119 35 36 24 138 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 50.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 15 15 15 15 16 15 14 10 7 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 38 48 59 70 63 46 38 27 15 27 17 19 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 488 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 15.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -2. 3. 10. 19. 25. 30. 35. 39. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 11. 11. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 12. 12. 16. 14. 17. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 9. 14. 27. 44. 57. 65. 74. 76. 83. 84. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.2 50.2 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972016 INVEST 09/27/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 8.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.91 5.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 55.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.36 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.69 4.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.8 to -3.1 0.62 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.47 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 148.4 28.4 to 139.1 1.00 3.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 146.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.79 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 4.6 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.3 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 30% is 5.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 8.3% 53.1% 30.7% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% 30.2% Logistic: 10.1% 68.1% 43.0% 23.1% 0.0% 37.9% 37.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 6.1% 40.8% 24.6% 11.8% 0.0% 12.6% 22.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972016 INVEST 09/27/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972016 INVEST 09/27/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 29 34 39 52 69 82 90 99 101 108 109 18HR AGO 25 24 27 32 37 50 67 80 88 97 99 106 107 12HR AGO 25 22 21 26 31 44 61 74 82 91 93 100 101 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 20 33 50 63 71 80 82 89 90 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT