* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972016 09/26/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 34 39 53 70 84 96 101 107 111 111 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 34 39 53 70 84 96 101 107 111 111 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 29 32 36 47 61 76 88 92 89 84 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 4 4 4 6 4 4 3 5 12 14 9 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -5 0 0 -3 0 0 9 7 3 1 2 6 SHEAR DIR 96 96 147 170 92 130 114 188 311 268 285 264 297 SST (C) 30.2 29.9 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.5 28.5 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 174 170 164 163 163 163 157 157 154 148 142 140 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 174 173 174 173 173 172 162 161 156 146 136 130 127 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -53.1 -53.2 -52.2 -52.5 -51.8 -52.0 -51.6 -51.9 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 11 11 9 10 8 9 700-500 MB RH 65 61 57 52 50 43 45 46 54 61 63 68 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 13 14 15 17 21 22 25 25 27 28 28 850 MB ENV VOR 63 66 72 66 65 68 81 78 77 78 82 97 104 200 MB DIV 77 108 102 59 42 62 69 93 100 97 89 85 120 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 1 1 3 2 5 7 4 8 5 12 LAND (KM) 698 644 615 606 601 327 204 257 253 138 98 94 119 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 15 16 16 17 16 15 14 13 10 6 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 38 37 49 63 75 54 41 35 38 51 34 31 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 22 CX,CY: -21/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 476 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 14.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -2. 3. 10. 19. 25. 30. 36. 40. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 11. 15. 14. 16. 17. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 9. 14. 28. 45. 59. 71. 76. 82. 86. 86. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.9 48.6 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972016 INVEST 09/26/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 7.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 28.8 to 2.9 0.95 5.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 52.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.34 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 37.5 to 2.9 0.57 3.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.8 to -3.1 0.61 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.49 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 148.5 28.4 to 139.1 1.00 3.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 136.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.80 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 4.3 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.8 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 28% is 5.6 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 50.3% 27.0% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% 28.5% Logistic: 9.6% 66.4% 43.5% 20.4% 0.0% 46.3% 38.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Consensus: 5.7% 39.7% 23.5% 10.8% 0.0% 15.4% 22.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972016 INVEST 09/26/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972016 INVEST 09/26/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 34 39 53 70 84 96 101 107 111 111 18HR AGO 25 24 26 31 36 50 67 81 93 98 104 108 108 12HR AGO 25 22 21 26 31 45 62 76 88 93 99 103 103 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 20 34 51 65 77 82 88 92 92 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT