* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972016 09/26/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 32 38 53 70 83 91 98 102 104 108 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 32 38 53 70 83 91 98 102 104 108 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 31 34 44 59 75 88 90 84 81 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 3 6 5 4 6 3 9 8 7 13 15 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -5 -2 -1 -4 -2 -2 7 8 3 2 5 SHEAR DIR 206 151 108 130 122 42 205 216 228 305 311 272 269 SST (C) 29.9 30.2 30.0 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.0 28.9 29.2 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 171 174 171 166 162 160 159 160 162 151 147 154 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 175 174 173 170 164 165 170 176 174 149 139 150 153 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.3 -53.5 -53.9 -53.8 -53.3 -53.2 -52.5 -52.3 -51.7 -52.3 -51.9 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 12 11 10 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 70 68 64 62 58 55 55 48 48 61 70 73 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 12 14 17 20 22 24 26 26 26 30 850 MB ENV VOR 70 69 70 73 76 76 76 61 69 91 74 86 78 200 MB DIV 64 78 102 98 63 101 106 107 72 90 54 100 105 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 1 1 5 6 5 5 6 8 14 LAND (KM) 823 714 642 596 575 661 615 446 401 154 89 252 300 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.7 10.0 10.1 10.3 11.6 13.4 14.8 14.4 12.8 12.2 13.6 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 46.0 48.1 49.6 50.7 51.6 53.2 56.0 60.6 65.6 68.3 68.4 67.9 68.8 STM SPEED (KT) 20 18 13 10 9 13 20 25 21 9 4 8 11 HEAT CONTENT 39 39 37 39 46 69 64 58 98 36 14 51 82 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 481 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 14.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -1. 3. 11. 19. 25. 30. 36. 41. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 11. 11. 12. 11. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 10. 13. 15. 16. 16. 16. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 13. 28. 45. 58. 66. 73. 77. 79. 83. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.3 46.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972016 INVEST 09/26/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.94 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 40.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.26 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 37.5 to 2.9 0.52 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.8 to -3.1 0.47 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.51 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 146.1 28.4 to 139.1 1.00 2.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 105.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.83 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 3.5 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.4 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 40.9% 17.3% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 27.3% Logistic: 8.6% 57.9% 34.0% 13.6% 0.0% 46.5% 62.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.7% Consensus: 5.1% 33.8% 17.2% 8.2% 0.0% 15.5% 30.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972016 INVEST 09/26/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972016 INVEST 09/26/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 32 38 53 70 83 91 98 102 104 108 18HR AGO 25 24 26 30 36 51 68 81 89 96 100 102 106 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 31 46 63 76 84 91 95 97 101 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 21 36 53 66 74 81 85 87 91 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT