* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972016 09/26/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 31 36 48 61 76 88 102 104 106 107 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 31 36 48 61 76 88 102 104 106 107 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 32 40 51 62 74 85 88 90 88 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 5 4 5 6 4 11 8 4 10 13 12 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -2 -3 -6 -3 -5 -7 -4 5 2 2 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 238 147 131 109 157 209 199 176 136 13 279 261 222 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.5 28.6 29.0 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 158 155 157 156 156 152 153 155 153 142 145 153 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 171 166 165 162 162 161 167 169 160 135 141 152 151 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -53.0 -53.4 -52.4 -52.4 -51.5 -51.9 -51.5 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 10 11 12 13 11 12 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 72 71 72 69 65 56 48 44 45 56 67 67 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 12 12 16 18 22 24 29 27 28 29 850 MB ENV VOR 72 75 72 74 75 66 69 75 89 89 65 79 91 200 MB DIV 61 80 96 113 103 95 111 96 84 108 73 80 78 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 0 2 5 4 8 4 11 9 4 LAND (KM) 1068 958 888 859 845 844 733 418 309 183 225 365 226 LAT (DEG N) 8.9 9.4 9.9 10.5 11.2 12.7 14.2 14.5 13.4 12.2 12.6 14.8 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 42.8 44.4 45.8 47.0 48.1 51.0 55.2 60.3 64.7 66.7 66.9 68.0 70.4 STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 14 13 14 19 24 24 18 5 8 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 31 29 33 35 35 58 68 63 44 27 31 82 67 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 461 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 11.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 4. 11. 19. 25. 30. 35. 40. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -2. -3. -4. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 13. 15. 21. 18. 18. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 6. 11. 23. 36. 51. 63. 77. 79. 81. 82. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.9 42.8 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972016 INVEST 09/26/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.94 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 32.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.21 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 37.5 to 2.9 0.73 3.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.8 to -3.1 0.33 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.56 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.2 28.4 to 139.1 1.00 2.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 75.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.86 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 3.6 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.6 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 41.8% 19.4% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% 23.6% Logistic: 8.4% 62.2% 37.3% 16.3% 0.0% 38.7% 36.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Consensus: 5.1% 35.5% 19.0% 9.2% 0.0% 12.9% 20.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972016 INVEST 09/26/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972016 INVEST 09/26/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 27 31 36 48 61 76 88 102 104 106 107 18HR AGO 25 24 26 30 35 47 60 75 87 101 103 105 106 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 30 42 55 70 82 96 98 100 101 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 20 32 45 60 72 86 88 90 91 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT