* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972016 09/26/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 32 36 46 56 65 71 73 74 79 83 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 32 36 46 56 65 71 73 74 79 61 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 32 35 42 51 62 71 76 75 70 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 12 13 15 10 11 13 18 30 26 9 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -3 -5 -7 -4 -5 0 -1 -3 2 0 7 SHEAR DIR 41 53 67 58 62 38 1 307 288 256 222 177 14 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 28.8 28.7 28.7 29.0 29.0 28.0 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 157 155 155 156 151 151 152 158 157 139 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 174 172 163 159 158 159 156 160 165 177 174 141 138 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.4 -53.4 -52.9 -52.8 -51.7 -52.0 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 12 12 13 9 10 700-500 MB RH 73 75 75 75 72 67 58 53 48 47 50 57 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 69 75 83 80 76 75 77 74 63 53 74 101 96 200 MB DIV 47 73 89 103 99 76 85 96 87 74 60 64 59 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 1 11 0 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 1185 1039 942 888 869 872 883 920 647 373 256 94 -24 LAT (DEG N) 7.9 8.2 8.5 8.9 9.5 10.8 12.4 13.9 15.3 16.4 15.8 13.0 11.0 LONG(DEG W) 41.1 42.7 43.9 44.8 45.6 47.2 49.5 52.8 57.2 62.8 68.9 72.4 72.0 STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 11 10 10 12 16 20 25 29 27 15 11 HEAT CONTENT 36 38 37 35 34 35 43 63 59 73 78 29 67 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 469 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 11.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. 0. 4. 11. 19. 25. 30. 36. 41. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 0. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. 5. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 11. 21. 31. 40. 46. 48. 49. 54. 58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 7.9 41.1 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972016 INVEST 09/26/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 8.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 28.8 to 2.9 0.66 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 36.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.23 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.8 37.5 to 2.9 0.92 4.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.44 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.51 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.2 28.4 to 139.1 1.00 3.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 54.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.88 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 4.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.8 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 8.5% 46.4% 25.3% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% 19.4% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 999.0% 22.9% Bayesian: 999.0% 5.7% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 2.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 999.0% 14.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972016 INVEST 09/26/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972016 INVEST 09/26/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 32 36 46 56 65 71 73 74 79 61 18HR AGO 25 24 26 30 34 44 54 63 69 71 72 77 59 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 29 39 49 58 64 66 67 72 54 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 29 39 48 54 56 57 62 44 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT