* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972016 09/25/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 32 37 47 58 69 76 81 83 85 86 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 32 37 47 58 69 76 81 83 85 86 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 32 36 44 54 66 79 87 90 87 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 10 9 11 14 12 9 13 17 32 29 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -2 -4 -6 -9 -6 -4 -2 -2 -2 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 51 47 54 66 52 54 29 339 314 276 267 236 205 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.8 28.7 29.1 29.1 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 159 157 155 155 155 151 152 151 159 159 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 174 173 167 162 159 159 160 158 161 163 177 175 163 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -53.8 -53.2 -53.4 -52.8 -53.0 -52.2 -52.2 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 8 8 9 10 11 12 12 12 11 700-500 MB RH 73 75 76 77 76 70 64 57 52 48 49 50 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 69 76 84 76 71 82 87 79 64 57 63 79 200 MB DIV 51 55 76 91 103 79 77 74 84 76 91 59 61 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 7 4 4 -2 LAND (KM) 1344 1195 1078 998 947 891 870 828 790 548 256 122 258 LAT (DEG N) 7.7 7.9 8.2 8.5 9.0 10.1 11.4 12.5 13.8 15.2 16.7 17.2 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 39.4 41.0 42.3 43.3 44.2 46.0 48.0 50.9 54.4 58.7 63.9 69.9 74.6 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 12 10 10 11 13 17 20 23 28 28 20 HEAT CONTENT 36 36 37 35 32 33 34 57 78 95 91 58 66 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 470 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 9.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. 0. 4. 11. 19. 25. 30. 36. 41. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 0. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 11. 10. 9. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 12. 22. 33. 44. 51. 56. 58. 60. 61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 7.7 39.4 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972016 INVEST 09/25/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 28.8 to 2.9 0.74 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 35.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.23 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 37.5 to 2.9 0.76 3.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.8 to -3.1 0.34 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.48 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.0 28.4 to 139.1 1.00 2.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 45.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.89 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 3.4 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 39.1% 17.8% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 18.5% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 999.0% 38.4% Bayesian: 999.0% 3.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 999.0% 19.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972016 INVEST 09/25/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972016 INVEST 09/25/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 32 37 47 58 69 76 81 83 85 86 18HR AGO 25 24 26 30 35 45 56 67 74 79 81 83 84 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 30 40 51 62 69 74 76 78 79 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 20 30 41 52 59 64 66 68 69 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT