* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972016 09/25/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 24 29 39 54 68 77 85 93 102 109 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 24 29 39 54 68 77 85 93 102 109 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 26 32 41 52 63 73 79 83 84 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 1 3 4 6 5 5 6 14 17 12 5 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 0 -1 -3 -5 -4 -5 -6 -1 0 6 SHEAR DIR 205 66 83 99 127 103 140 190 215 217 232 148 349 SST (C) 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.7 28.7 29.0 29.0 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 155 156 156 154 153 154 151 152 158 156 140 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 165 167 166 163 160 160 162 163 168 177 170 141 132 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -53.4 -53.4 -52.8 -52.7 -52.1 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 7 9 9 11 11 13 12 12 9 700-500 MB RH 73 74 77 75 75 70 64 53 45 44 48 57 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 8 9 9 12 14 15 17 19 21 23 850 MB ENV VOR 71 66 74 82 84 72 78 70 58 44 60 93 109 200 MB DIV 29 46 68 79 93 86 72 96 73 49 48 58 73 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 2 3 0 2 0 7 5 1 5 6 LAND (KM) 1536 1383 1256 1145 1068 953 881 883 643 425 326 113 61 LAT (DEG N) 8.2 8.5 8.8 9.1 9.5 10.5 11.8 13.4 14.9 15.7 15.2 13.5 12.0 LONG(DEG W) 37.7 39.4 40.8 42.1 43.2 45.6 48.4 52.0 56.8 62.7 68.2 71.9 73.0 STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 14 12 12 14 16 22 27 29 24 14 7 HEAT CONTENT 39 35 32 28 25 31 34 61 57 72 85 35 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 10.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -1. 3. 11. 19. 26. 32. 39. 44. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. 10. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 10. 11. 13. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 4. 9. 19. 34. 48. 57. 65. 73. 82. 89. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 8.2 37.7 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972016 INVEST 09/25/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.1 28.8 to 2.9 0.99 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 31.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 37.5 to 2.9 0.69 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.8 to -3.1 0.33 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.42 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 144.2 28.4 to 139.1 1.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 28.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.91 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.3% 39.4% 18.9% 4.6% 0.0% 22.2% 60.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 13.6% 6.3% 1.5% 0.0% 7.4% 20.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972016 INVEST 09/25/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972016 INVEST 09/25/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 21 24 29 39 54 68 77 85 93 102 109 18HR AGO 20 19 20 23 28 38 53 67 76 84 92 101 108 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 24 34 49 63 72 80 88 97 104 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT