* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972016 09/25/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 25 29 38 51 67 80 92 102 112 118 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 25 29 38 51 67 80 92 102 112 118 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 25 31 39 49 64 82 97 106 107 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 4 6 5 5 8 10 7 14 9 16 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 -1 0 -3 -6 -6 -7 -6 -5 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 96 104 94 119 120 99 95 61 42 31 30 15 358 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.0 29.1 29.4 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 150 152 154 156 152 154 159 155 154 154 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 158 156 157 159 161 157 158 165 158 154 151 146 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -53.6 -53.8 -53.4 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 11 11 11 10 700-500 MB RH 76 76 77 78 77 73 70 64 57 53 50 52 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 7 9 10 12 14 16 17 20 21 850 MB ENV VOR 73 68 65 68 72 65 74 78 58 46 32 56 40 200 MB DIV 26 31 67 70 86 71 68 66 55 58 36 3 14 700-850 TADV 1 2 1 2 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1788 1668 1570 1487 1400 1212 1047 924 779 637 520 463 436 LAT (DEG N) 7.5 7.6 7.9 8.2 8.4 9.1 9.7 10.4 10.6 10.5 10.2 9.9 9.7 LONG(DEG W) 34.9 36.1 37.2 38.2 39.2 41.4 43.6 45.9 48.3 50.7 52.7 54.0 54.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 10 11 11 12 12 12 11 8 5 1 HEAT CONTENT 36 38 40 40 38 30 26 34 38 43 49 52 52 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 9.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 11. 20. 26. 32. 38. 43. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 9. 18. 31. 47. 60. 72. 82. 92. 98. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 7.5 34.9 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972016 INVEST 09/25/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.93 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 38.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.25 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 37.5 to 2.9 0.68 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.29 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.39 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.1 28.4 to 139.1 0.98 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 26.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.91 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.3% 57.9% 40.3% 22.0% 0.0% 53.3% 55.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 4.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.1% Consensus: 3.1% 20.6% 13.6% 7.3% 0.0% 17.8% 18.9% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972016 INVEST 09/25/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 25 29 38 51 67 80 92 102 112 118 18HR AGO 20 19 20 23 27 36 49 65 78 90 100 110 116 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 23 32 45 61 74 86 96 106 112 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT