* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972016 09/25/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 25 28 39 51 66 79 92 103 110 116 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 25 28 39 51 66 79 92 103 110 116 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 23 25 31 39 50 65 84 102 111 108 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 6 7 6 4 6 5 4 6 5 11 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 -3 -2 0 -4 -5 -7 -7 -4 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 130 71 79 74 83 112 82 88 36 353 289 296 310 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 149 150 152 154 153 153 155 153 155 157 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 156 155 155 156 159 159 159 161 159 160 157 149 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 7 7 8 8 10 11 12 11 11 700-500 MB RH 75 77 77 78 80 76 71 67 58 51 47 49 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 8 9 11 13 15 17 18 20 850 MB ENV VOR 73 73 71 69 71 74 69 88 76 64 49 33 31 200 MB DIV 38 39 46 74 71 63 51 50 41 34 32 11 -23 700-850 TADV 3 1 2 2 2 4 0 2 0 2 1 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 1902 1781 1677 1580 1507 1330 1150 995 872 732 657 527 389 LAT (DEG N) 7.5 7.6 7.8 8.1 8.4 9.1 9.8 10.5 11.2 11.4 11.6 11.6 11.5 LONG(DEG W) 33.8 35.0 36.1 37.2 38.1 40.2 42.5 45.0 47.7 50.6 53.5 56.0 57.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 11 13 13 14 14 14 10 6 HEAT CONTENT 36 35 36 40 41 32 25 29 37 49 71 66 59 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 7.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 11. 20. 26. 32. 38. 43. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 12. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 9. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 8. 19. 31. 46. 59. 72. 83. 90. 96. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 7.5 33.8 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972016 INVEST 09/25/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.91 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 37.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.24 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 37.5 to 2.9 0.63 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.8 to -3.1 0.38 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.37 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.97 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 26.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.91 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.8% 44.6% 25.9% 10.4% 0.0% 25.7% 48.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 3.8% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% Consensus: 2.0% 16.1% 8.9% 3.5% 0.0% 8.6% 16.4% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972016 INVEST 09/25/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 25 28 39 51 66 79 92 103 110 116 18HR AGO 20 19 20 23 26 37 49 64 77 90 101 108 114 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 22 33 45 60 73 86 97 104 110 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT