* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972016 08/02/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 41 43 46 54 62 68 73 75 76 80 82 V (KT) LAND 40 40 41 43 46 54 38 31 38 30 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 41 42 44 48 35 30 35 29 27 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 12 10 15 13 8 10 3 7 10 17 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 2 0 1 -6 -4 -1 -1 -3 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 273 280 274 283 295 286 342 7 5 48 62 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.5 29.7 29.8 30.0 29.7 29.4 29.8 30.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 155 157 161 165 167 171 165 159 166 170 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 155 156 155 158 161 163 168 161 152 157 162 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -51.6 -52.3 -51.6 -52.2 -51.5 -52.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 9 9 11 7 11 7 10 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 66 73 72 71 76 76 76 78 81 81 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 13 13 16 17 16 15 13 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 52 72 53 46 49 23 24 47 69 74 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -1 14 45 52 35 73 71 39 34 65 57 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -7 -10 -11 -10 -5 -5 0 -5 -5 -6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 222 288 176 101 100 84 -146 -27 8 -150 -176 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 79.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 14 12 12 12 13 13 11 10 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 66 38 35 39 41 37 0 44 28 26 59 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):273/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 704 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 12. 17. 20. 24. 27. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 6. 4. 2. -2. -7. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 6. 14. 22. 28. 33. 35. 36. 40. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.5 79.4 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972016 INVEST 08/02/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 28.8 to 2.9 0.60 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 43.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.28 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.3 37.5 to 2.9 0.29 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.8 to -3.1 0.78 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.25 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.1 28.4 to 139.1 0.80 1.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 125.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.81 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.8 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.3 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 20.6% 11.7% 10.1% 7.3% 9.9% 22.2% Logistic: 1.7% 14.4% 7.6% 1.7% 0.0% 4.4% 34.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 5.6% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 3.1% Consensus: 2.8% 13.6% 6.9% 3.9% 2.4% 4.9% 19.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972016 INVEST 08/02/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972016 INVEST 08/02/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 41 43 46 54 38 31 38 30 28 27 27 18HR AGO 40 39 40 42 45 53 37 30 37 29 27 26 26 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 41 49 33 26 33 25 23 22 22 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 33 41 25 18 25 17 15 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT