* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972016 08/02/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 43 45 48 54 62 68 74 75 81 85 87 V (KT) LAND 40 41 43 45 48 54 47 33 37 32 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 42 43 45 48 42 32 35 31 28 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 15 11 11 13 8 13 9 5 6 16 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 2 2 0 -1 -6 -5 -2 1 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 263 275 280 277 282 302 300 11 3 39 58 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.5 29.7 30.1 30.0 29.4 29.6 29.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 154 157 161 165 173 171 159 162 168 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 157 155 154 155 159 162 172 166 153 154 160 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.5 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 11 9 11 9 9 9 9 8 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 64 67 73 74 74 75 75 76 78 81 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 11 12 12 15 14 13 11 11 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 74 57 54 70 51 48 31 26 47 61 85 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 5 18 45 50 54 76 40 38 59 58 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -8 -12 -11 -11 -7 -7 0 -6 -4 -8 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 158 228 282 184 94 147 -95 -55 44 -65 -220 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 77.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 15 14 13 13 14 12 11 10 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 104 68 36 35 37 39 84 49 14 36 41 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 6.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 12. 17. 20. 24. 27. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 4. 3. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 22. 28. 34. 35. 41. 45. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.3 77.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972016 INVEST 08/02/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.62 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 56.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.36 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 37.5 to 2.9 0.42 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.8 to -3.1 0.76 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.26 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.0 28.4 to 139.1 0.79 1.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 137.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.80 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.3 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.5 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 26.8% 12.6% 11.0% 8.2% 10.1% 22.9% Logistic: 4.7% 30.9% 21.7% 8.5% 0.0% 15.0% 37.8% Bayesian: 0.4% 11.7% 4.0% 0.3% 0.1% 2.6% 13.2% Consensus: 4.3% 23.1% 12.8% 6.6% 2.8% 9.2% 24.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972016 INVEST 08/02/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972016 INVEST 08/02/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 43 45 48 54 47 33 37 32 28 27 27 18HR AGO 40 39 41 43 46 52 45 31 35 30 26 25 25 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 41 47 40 26 30 25 21 20 20 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 33 39 32 18 22 17 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT