* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972016 08/02/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 45 48 52 58 64 72 76 79 80 80 78 V (KT) LAND 40 42 45 48 52 58 64 46 39 42 35 29 28 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 43 45 47 52 56 42 32 40 35 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 14 16 12 12 15 9 10 3 6 7 14 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 3 1 0 -5 -3 -1 -4 -2 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 237 270 279 286 282 293 285 334 353 6 68 50 64 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.7 29.7 29.9 29.8 29.5 29.7 29.9 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 156 155 158 165 165 169 167 161 164 167 168 ADJ. POT. INT. 160 159 157 156 158 161 160 165 161 155 155 156 155 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -51.9 -52.1 -51.4 -52.1 -51.5 -52.0 -51.4 -52.0 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 11 11 9 11 7 10 7 10 7 10 700-500 MB RH 64 63 64 67 73 73 78 77 78 76 80 81 82 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 10 11 14 15 17 16 14 11 8 4 850 MB ENV VOR 86 74 54 52 67 46 47 31 28 51 74 78 69 200 MB DIV 35 32 15 25 49 41 77 64 25 38 41 49 55 700-850 TADV 3 -2 -9 -13 -13 -13 -5 -4 0 -5 -3 -9 -4 LAND (KM) 170 112 168 284 226 144 76 -153 0 34 -100 -272 -176 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.7 16.8 16.8 16.8 17.2 17.8 18.2 18.6 18.9 19.2 19.2 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 75.2 77.1 78.9 80.5 82.2 84.9 87.2 89.7 92.3 94.8 97.2 99.1 100.6 STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 16 16 14 12 12 13 12 12 10 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 78 106 89 51 38 45 42 44 46 17 33 0 56 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 12.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 12. 17. 20. 24. 27. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 7. 4. -1. -5. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 18. 24. 32. 36. 39. 40. 40. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.6 75.2 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972016 INVEST 08/02/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 6.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 28.8 to 2.9 0.63 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 72.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.47 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 37.5 to 2.9 0.68 3.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.8 to -3.1 0.69 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.27 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.1 28.4 to 139.1 0.81 2.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 143.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.80 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 3.2 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.4 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 12.9% 37.3% 23.2% 12.4% 9.6% 10.5% 22.5% Logistic: 5.6% 33.1% 22.6% 9.6% 0.0% 12.4% 34.1% Bayesian: 1.1% 8.4% 3.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.9% 4.4% Consensus: 6.6% 26.3% 16.6% 7.4% 3.2% 7.9% 20.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972016 INVEST 08/02/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972016 INVEST 08/02/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 45 48 52 58 64 46 39 42 35 29 28 18HR AGO 40 39 42 45 49 55 61 43 36 39 32 26 25 12HR AGO 40 37 36 39 43 49 55 37 30 33 26 20 19 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 34 40 46 28 21 24 17 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT