* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972016 08/01/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 47 49 52 54 58 62 65 68 72 77 V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 47 49 52 54 58 39 38 41 46 36 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 42 43 45 46 47 49 35 35 38 43 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 15 18 15 19 14 15 9 12 6 6 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 2 0 3 -3 -4 -4 -4 -6 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 227 233 271 283 292 294 314 291 335 297 316 13 79 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.4 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.7 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 158 156 154 154 153 159 166 166 168 168 164 163 165 ADJ. POT. INT. 163 160 155 153 152 156 162 161 161 160 154 151 152 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -51.7 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 12 11 12 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 59 62 63 63 67 74 75 77 78 79 79 79 79 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 77 92 78 59 56 56 50 45 27 25 41 65 54 200 MB DIV 39 38 39 20 33 47 57 78 54 57 45 35 19 700-850 TADV 9 2 -3 -8 -10 -10 -7 -1 -2 -8 -5 -11 -1 LAND (KM) 182 176 122 167 268 192 168 45 -137 33 154 61 -91 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 73.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 16 15 14 12 12 11 11 11 10 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 57 78 107 87 54 39 48 40 45 6 19 18 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 8.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 12. 17. 20. 23. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 14. 18. 22. 25. 28. 32. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.4 73.4 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972016 INVEST 08/01/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 7.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 28.8 to 2.9 0.59 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 76.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.49 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 37.5 to 2.9 0.65 3.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.8 to -3.1 0.78 4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.28 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.79 2.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 170.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.77 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 3.4 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 13.1% 39.0% 24.7% 12.4% 9.7% 10.4% 20.5% Logistic: 7.8% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 999.0% 25.4% Bayesian: 1.6% 14.2% 5.1% 0.5% 0.3% 1.5% 7.3% Consensus: 7.5% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 3.3% 999.0% 17.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972016 INVEST 08/01/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972016 INVEST 08/01/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 44 47 49 52 54 58 39 38 41 46 36 18HR AGO 40 39 41 44 46 49 51 55 36 35 38 43 33 12HR AGO 40 37 36 39 41 44 46 50 31 30 33 38 28 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 32 35 37 41 22 21 24 29 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT