* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972016 08/01/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 45 49 51 55 58 62 64 68 71 74 76 V (KT) LAND 40 43 45 49 51 55 58 62 41 41 44 47 49 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 45 47 49 52 54 56 39 39 43 47 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 9 13 16 12 15 10 10 5 8 6 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -1 0 0 0 0 -5 0 -1 0 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 243 244 243 277 278 281 294 283 300 237 296 300 350 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.3 29.8 29.7 29.9 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 158 156 154 155 154 158 167 165 169 164 163 164 164 ADJ. POT. INT. 164 160 158 158 156 156 163 162 165 156 150 148 147 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.2 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -51.9 -52.2 -51.6 -52.2 -51.8 -52.4 -51.5 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 13 12 12 11 11 9 11 8 11 8 11 9 700-500 MB RH 60 60 64 64 65 73 74 79 76 75 75 77 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 71 85 100 87 65 71 42 49 27 20 36 45 53 200 MB DIV 41 36 30 30 13 66 32 60 54 35 54 41 52 700-850 TADV 2 6 0 -1 -8 -10 -14 -8 -14 -6 -11 -8 -9 LAND (KM) 202 224 201 144 191 245 170 61 -99 66 143 96 49 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 17 17 18 17 14 12 13 13 11 8 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 61 46 73 109 80 42 48 45 45 22 19 21 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 7.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 17. 20. 24. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 9. 11. 15. 18. 22. 24. 28. 31. 34. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.8 71.7 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972016 INVEST 08/01/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 10.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 28.8 to 2.9 0.71 4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 73.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.48 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 37.5 to 2.9 0.48 3.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.7 2.8 to -3.1 0.94 6.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.26 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.2 28.4 to 139.1 0.82 3.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 177.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.76 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 4.3 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 4.7 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 29% is 5.6 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 14.1% 49.4% 34.1% 14.7% 10.1% 19.7% 28.6% Logistic: 6.4% 42.3% 30.2% 11.3% 0.0% 999.0% 42.4% Bayesian: 1.9% 37.6% 14.6% 0.7% 0.4% 3.8% 53.5% Consensus: 7.5% 43.1% 26.3% 8.9% 3.5% 999.0% 41.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972016 INVEST 08/01/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972016 INVEST 08/01/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 45 49 51 55 58 62 41 41 44 47 49 18HR AGO 40 39 41 45 47 51 54 58 37 37 40 43 45 12HR AGO 40 37 36 40 42 46 49 53 32 32 35 38 40 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 32 36 39 43 22 22 25 28 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT